Wind power weighting predication method based on conditional probability

A technology for wind power power and weighted forecasting, which is applied in forecasting, instrumentation, data processing applications, etc., and can solve the problems that the wind power output forecasting system cannot be directly applied, the power generation is low, and the application effect is poor.

Inactive Publication Date: 2014-08-20
SOUTHEAST UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

Due to the lack of full consideration of the uniqueness of my country's wind farms, foreign wind power output forecasting systems cannot be directly applied in China, or the application effect is very poor
However, domestic research on this aspect started relatively late, and is still in the preliminary exploration and research stage. The research work mainly focuses on short-term prediction of wind speed in wind farms, and there are fewer studies on power generation in the true sense.

Method used

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  • Wind power weighting predication method based on conditional probability
  • Wind power weighting predication method based on conditional probability
  • Wind power weighting predication method based on conditional probability

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Embodiment Construction

[0063] The present invention will be further explained below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0064] Such as figure 1 As shown, a wind power weighted prediction method based on conditional probability, the specific steps are as follows:

[0065] 1) Use the confidence band equivalent curve method to represent the wind speed-power characteristic curve of the unit; the specific steps are:

[0066] 11) Read the annual wind speed-power operation data (V, P) of all wind turbines in Jiangsu Guohua Wind Farm in 2013, (V, P) is a two-dimensional continuous random vector;

[0067] 12) The wind speed-power operation data (V, P) is used as several sample points, and the average probability density of the sample point falling in the δ neighborhood of the point (v, p) represents the probability of (V, P) Density f(v,p):

[0068] f ( v , p ) ≈ n ...

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Abstract

The invention provides a wind power short-term predication method and relates to a wind power weighting predication method based on conditional probability. The wind power weighting predication method comprises the steps of utilizing a confidence belt equivalent curve method to express an air speed-power characteristic curve of a unit; obtaining weighting coefficients at different historical moments through an actual data test to accurately predicate the air speed; obtaining the final predication power by means of a coefficient correction predication method. Effectiveness of the wind power weighting predication method based on conditional probability is proved by means of error analysis and comparison. By means of the wind power weighting predication method based on conditional probability, the accurate air speed-power characteristic curve is obtained by means of a confidence belt, and power is predicated accurately by means of the coefficient correction predication method based on actual data.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a short-term prediction method of wind power. Background technique [0002] Wind power is a new way of generating electricity. In recent years, my country's energy policy has been adjusted, and the installed capacity of grid-connected wind power has grown rapidly. At the same time, the centralized grid-connection of large-scale wind power has also brought impact on the safe operation of the power grid. Improving the predictability of wind farm output can effectively reduce the impact of wind power on the power grid and reduce the pressure on the power grid. This is of positive significance for making full use of wind energy and increasing the proportion of grid-connected wind power installed capacity. [0003] Forecasting the output of wind farms will enable the power dispatching department to adjust the scheduling plan in advance for changes in wind power output, thereby reducing the spinning reserve capacity of the power sup...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 秦英杰时斌谢珍建乔黎伟王哲
Owner SOUTHEAST UNIV
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