Criminal suspicion probability prediction method and system

Abstract

The present invention provides a method for predicting the probability of criminal suspicion, which includes obtaining relevant information of the person to be tested, and determining the type of criminal record corresponding to the person to be tested according to the relevant information, and the relevant historical data screened out by the specified index corresponding to each type of criminal record; determining Detection time, and according to the relevant historical data, numerically assign values ​​to the specified indicators in each criminal record type; set the feature vector to be formed by all the indicators in the specified indicators, and according to the feature vector and the assignment of the specified indicators, get each criminal record type of training sample library; the classification attributes of the training sample library of each type of criminal record are divided into 1 and 0, and the category probability when the classification attribute in the training sample library corresponding to each criminal record type is 1 is respectively adopted the logistic regression model Fitting is performed to obtain the criminal probability of each type of criminal record of the person to be tested. By implementing the invention, the crime type and crime probability of the person to be tested can be accurately predicted, and on-site guidance can be provided for key investigations by public security officers.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of public security crime prediction, in particular to a method and system for predicting the probability of criminal suspicion. Background technique [0002] At present, our country is in the critical period of the in-depth development of public security informatization and "information-led policing". In the entire "information-led policing" working mode, the analysis and judgment of criminal intelligence is the core, and crime prediction is the most important. The most important. Usually, the research on crime prediction mainly adopts empirical methods, and through investigation, data collection, analysis, and induction, important relevant factors are obtained, thereby revealing the law of crime occurrence. [0003] In the existing technology, domestic crime prediction mainly adopts mathematical analysis methods, including regression analysis, gray system theory analysis and optimal combination analysis, e...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] In the existing technology, domestic crime prediction mainly adopts mathematical analysis methods, including regression analysis, gray system theory analysis and optimal combination analysis, etc., but most of these methods focus on the field of macroscopic prediction and fail to focus on the field of microscopic prediction. It is impossible to give the type of crime and its corresponding probability for the information and action trajectory of specific people, so it lacks a good auxiliary effect on the daily work of the police

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