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Monte-Carlo simulation based small interference probability risk analysis and simulation method

A technique of Monte Carlo simulation and probabilistic risk, which is applied in data processing applications, instruments, calculations, etc., and can solve problems such as the increase of uncertain factors

Inactive Publication Date: 2017-05-24
NR ELECTRIC CO LTD +1
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Problems solved by technology

The increase of many uncertain factors has brought new challenges to the deterministic analysis theory and methods of conventional power systems

Method used

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  • Monte-Carlo simulation based small interference probability risk analysis and simulation method
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  • Monte-Carlo simulation based small interference probability risk analysis and simulation method

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Embodiment Construction

[0050] The following will be described in conjunction with specific embodiments.

[0051] Taking the East China Power Grid in 2012 as a simulation example, the small disturbance probability risk analysis and simulation were carried out when considering the uncertain original system and the load reduction level in some areas. In Jiangsu, Anhui, and Fujian regions, respectively add industrial and residential load fluctuations to simulate the actual load uncertainty according to the normal distribution. It is generally considered that the load with a power factor lower than 0.9 is industrial load, and the rest is residential load. According to correlation analysis, the correlation coefficient between residential loads is ρ=0.8, the correlation coefficient between industrial loads is ρ=0.4, and the correlation coefficient between residential loads and industrial loads is ρ=0.2. Add wind power models in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions respectively, and add three wind turbines in each ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a Monte-Carlo simulation based small interference probability risk analysis and simulation method. According to the invention, a corresponding probability distribution model is built so as to be used for studying the small interference probability stability. A large number of operating scenarios are generated by adopting a Monte-Carlo method, and certainty small interference stability analysis is performed at different cross sections, wherein the certainty small interference stability analysis specifically comprises system state space linearization, eigenvalue analysis, key oscillation mode recognition, damping ratio sensitivity calculation and the like. Through performing simulation, calculation and analysis on difference scenarios, a probability density distribution function of the key modal damping ratio is formed by using a mathematical statistics method, and thus the probability of small interference safe and stable operations of a system is acquired by calculation. On the basis, risk evaluation is performed on the system by a risk index based on the damping ratio sensitivity. According to the analysis and simulation method, the small interference probability stability of the system can be evaluated effectively, effectively risk evaluation is performed on the system, and a decision-making basis can be provided for safe and stable operations of the system.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power system small disturbance stability, and in particular relates to small disturbance probability stability analysis and risk assessment considering uncertain factors. Background technique [0002] With the construction of my country's AC UHV power grid, the ultra-large-scale interconnected power grid will eventually form a unified unified power grid in my country. The important purpose of power grid interconnection is large-scale long-distance transmission of power and improving the operation economy of the entire power system. However, the structure of the interconnection system is more complex, which may lead to a smaller margin of safety and stability of the system, and the mutual influence after the accident is more intensified. , it is easy to cause large fluctuations in the power of the tie line, and induce low-frequency oscillations between regions. The low-frequency oscillation problem of the...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/0635G06Q50/06
Inventor 陈峰闫济红王俊杰
Owner NR ELECTRIC CO LTD
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