Construction method of Bayesian risk network models of cascade reservoir group

Abstract

The invention relates to the field of water conservancy and hydropower engineering, and discloses a construction method of Bayesian risk network models of a cascade reservoir group. Risk transmission factors of the cascade reservoir group are comprehensively considered, and powerful theoretical and technical support is provided for risk analysis and evaluation of the cascade reservoir group. The method comprises the following steps that firstly, cascade hydropower station Bayesian risk network models of different dam types are generalized by selecting high-level network nodes; secondly, a reservoir inflow flood node and a reservoir outflow flood node on the generalized cascade hydropower station Bayesian risk network model are set to be connection nodes between an upstream hydropower station and a downstream hydropower station which are adjacent to each other; thirdly, the generalized cascade hydropower station Bayesian risk network model serves as a basic unit, the reservoir outflow flood node of an upstream reservoir and the reservoir inflow flood node of a downstream reservoir are connected through a single arrow line according to the combination modes between the cascade reservoirs, and the Bayesian risk network models of the cascade reservoir group in different combination modes are formed.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of water conservancy and hydropower engineering, in particular to a method for constructing a Bayesian risk network model of a cascade reservoir group. Background technique [0002] In recent years, my country has ushered in a golden opportunity for hydropower construction, and a large number of hydropower stations have started construction and put into operation one after another. With the large-scale cascade development of the main streams of major rivers, there are at least a dozen or as many as dozens of cascade reservoirs that are basically continuous and connected from end to end. [0003] The risk of the reservoirs in the cascade reservoir group is not only the single cascade itself, but the disaster loss caused by the failure of any cascade reservoir will be transmitted, superimposed and amplified in the cascade system of the watershed. The safety risk of cascade reservoirs in the basin is a complex system en...

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Problems solved by technology

The safety risk of cascaded reservoirs in the basin is a complex system engineering

[0004] At present, the design standards and technical specifications of my country's water conservancy and hydropower projects are all stipulations for a single reservoir and a single hydraulic structure that do not affect each other, and the risk analysis of the cascade reservoir group as a whole has not yet been carried out

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