Energy-substitution environmental protection potential calculating method

Abstract

The invention discloses an energy-substitution environmental protection potential calculating method, and the method is characterized in that the method comprises the following steps: firstly buildinga terminal total energy consumption prediction model based on a method of structured analysis; carrying out the prediction of the main variables based on historical data and a planning file: economicoutput, industrial structure and energy intensity; measuring the terminal total energy consumption in a planning year through a model, and then measuring the terminal energy consumption of coal, petroleum, electricity and natural gas in the planning year without consideration to the energy substitution, and predicting a renewable energy and natural gas supply consumption upper limit in the planning year through historical data and an energy planning file; predicting a carbon emission upper limit of the planning year through the total carbon emission and the historical data of the unit GNP carbon emission intensity and an energy conservation and emission reduction target; finally calculating the energy-substitution environmental protection potential of the planning year. The method is clear in calculation logic, is high in data collection accuracy, is simple and convenient in calculation process, is high in operability, and can quickly and accurately achieve the measurement of the energy-substitution environmental protection potential.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a potential calculation method, in particular to an energy substitution environmental protection potential calculation method, which belongs to the technical field of analysis and calculation. Background technique [0002] my country's "Energy Strategic Action Plan 2014-2020" clearly stated that "focus on optimizing the energy structure, and take the development of clean and low-carbon energy as the main direction of energy structure adjustment. Adhere to the development of non-fossil energy and the efficient and clean use of fossil energy simultaneously, and gradually reduce Increase the proportion of coal consumption, increase the proportion of natural gas consumption, substantially increase the proportion of wind power, solar energy, geothermal energy and other renewable energy and nuclear power consumption, form a scientific and reasonable energy consumption structure that is compatible with my country's national conditions, ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to solve the problems that the current energy substitution environmental protection potential calculation method has a large number of statistical calibers, a very large amount of calculation, a large number of data sources, many empirical calculation coefficients, and large calculation errors. Energy endowment and energy consumption structure characteristics, based on energy supply and consumption and energy conservation and emission reduction constraints, while considering the energy planning and carbon emission control objectives of the energy substitution environmental protection potential calculation method, the accuracy of calculation data collection is greatly improved, and the calculation logic is more accurate. Clear, simple calculation process, a highly operable calculation method for energy substitution and environmental protection potential

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