Critical rainfall early warning method for mountain torrent disaster under multi-scenario mode

Abstract

The invention discloses a critical rainfall early warning method for mountain torrent disasters in a multi-scenario mode, which comprises the steps of: collecting disaster prevention object data with a small watershed as a unit; determining the soil state in the early stage; determining the type of possible local rainstorms to carry out rainfall time course allocation design; scenarios Mode combination; determine the critical rainfall under different scenario modes; select the corresponding critical rainfall grading warning for different weather conditions. The present invention considers the flash flood disaster outbreak conditions under different scenarios under natural conditions, focuses on the design rain pattern and the influence of the uncertainty of the soil state in the early stage, and combines the measured data of the control section of the small watershed to try to calculate different critical rainfall values, according to the actual situation The corresponding mountain torrent early warning was issued, and through the test of the measured storm and flood process, it was proved that the mountain torrent disaster early warning mode under the multi-scenario mode is feasible, which improved the fit between the mountain torrent disaster early warning and natural conditions, and further improved the mountain torrent disaster early warning. reliability, credibility and applicability.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of mountain torrent disaster research, and in particular relates to a critical rainfall early warning method for mountain torrent disasters in a multi-scenario mode. Background technique [0002] Mountain torrent disasters are currently the main fatal disasters of flood disasters in my country. Mountain torrent disasters of different degrees occur in different regions of China every year. Our country presents the characteristics of high frequency of occurrence and large degree of loss. [0003] The critical rainfall is often used as an early warning index in the early warning of mountain torrent disasters in my country. When determining the critical rainfall, the previous impact rainfall is mostly a single value, and the rain pattern also adopts a fixed design rain pattern. Ignoring the influence of the uncertainty of critical rainfall, due to the randomness of rainfall and the uncertainty of previous impact...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] In order to solve the deficiencies in the prior art, the present invention provides a critical rainfall early warning method for mountain torrent disasters in a multi-scenario mode; the method solves the problem of low reliability of early warning information in a single scenario, resulting in changes in the natural conditions of disaster prevention objects , the problem of being unable to release effective early warning information with high reliability

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