Short-term load forecasting method for microgrid based on independent component analysis and support vector machine

A technology of independent component analysis and short-term load forecasting, applied in forecasting, nuclear methods, computer components, etc., to avoid unsmooth load curves, reduce computational complexity, and reduce dimensions

Active Publication Date: 2019-02-15
JIANGSU ELECTRIC POWER CO +1
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Problems solved by technology

[0009] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to overcome the difficulty of forecasting caused by the uncertainty of the load in the microgrid, and provide a short-term load forecasting method for the microgrid based on independent component analysis and support vector machine, with the regional daily load of the microgrid as t

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  • Short-term load forecasting method for microgrid based on independent component analysis and support vector machine
  • Short-term load forecasting method for microgrid based on independent component analysis and support vector machine
  • Short-term load forecasting method for microgrid based on independent component analysis and support vector machine

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Embodiment Construction

[0054] Embodiments of the present invention will be described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0055] Such as figure 1 As shown, the present invention designs a microgrid short-term load forecasting method based on independent component analysis and support vector machine, which specifically includes the following steps:

[0056] Step S1, using the Chebyshevv orthogonal polynomial to perform curve fitting on the historical daily load data of the microgrid area, and adding a penalty function to optimize the fitting effect.

[0057] The historical daily load data of a microgrid area can be obtained from the SCADA database system of the power system. For example, the load data can be but not limited to power, and the collection cycle is 15min / time. Therefore, there are 96 collection points for daily load data, which can form a historical daily load curve; The historical daily load SCADA data is collected, transmitted, and stored in a series of links. Due to...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a microgrid short-term load forecasting method based on independent component analysis and support vector machine, which comprises the following steps: adopting Chebyshevv orthogonal polynomial to carry out curve fitting on historical daily load data of the microgrid region, and adding penalty function to carry out optimization; Updating the historical load data and using independent component analysis method to obtain the load independent separation source and mixed matrix of historical load data; For the meteorological data of historical day and forecast day, principal component analysis is used to obtain the principal component vector, and the decision data is combined with the date data. The mixed matrix of historical load data is used as the target data, combined with the historical day decision data, and the support vector machine (SVM) and fireworks algorithm are used to optimize the penalty factor and the kernel parameter, so as to obtain the optimal SVMtraining model. The forecasted daily load curve is obtained by substituting the forecasted daily decision data. The invention can remove noise interference, and can effectively and accurately predictthe load of the microgrid in a short time in the future.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a short-term load forecasting method for a micro-grid based on independent component analysis and a support vector machine, and belongs to the technical field of power system scheduling and operation. Background technique [0002] With the continuous development of society, the human demand for energy is also increasing. In the electric power industry, the power generation pattern dominated by traditional fossil energy has also become more and more disadvantageous due to the gradual depletion of resources and environmental problems. With the development of science and technology in recent years, various new energy sources can be used for power generation, such as wind power and photovoltaic power generation, It is gradually applied to the power system, but it also brings problems and challenges to the power system scheduling and operation while solving the problem of energy depletion. [0003] Traditional short-term load forec...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06N20/10G06K9/62
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06F18/2134G06F18/2135
Inventor 侍红兵周洪益殷芸辉胥峥胡志林蒋浩张雄义
Owner JIANGSU ELECTRIC POWER CO
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