An emergency decision-making method based on scenario analysis

A technology of emergencies and decision-making methods, applied in the field of emergency traffic management, can solve the problems of inability to shorten the response time, low accuracy of emergency decision-making scheme selection, and inconformity with the actual situation, so as to achieve scientific and reasonable decision-making schemes, improve decision-making efficiency, The effect of satisfying decision needs

Active Publication Date: 2019-03-26
HARBIN INST OF TECH
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0008] The purpose of the present invention is to solve the unreasonable setting of the existing emergency response mechanism. Emergency management personnel directly rely on experience or use methods such as artificial neural network division to carry out emergency decision-making on emergency events and cannot shorten the response time, which is not in line with the actual situation. It leads to the problem of low accuracy in the selection of emergency decision-making schemes, and a method for emergency decision-making based on scenario analysis is proposed

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  • An emergency decision-making method based on scenario analysis
  • An emergency decision-making method based on scenario analysis
  • An emergency decision-making method based on scenario analysis

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specific Embodiment approach 1

[0025] Specific implementation mode one: combine figure 1 Describe this embodiment, the specific process of a kind of emergency decision-making method based on scenario analysis of this embodiment is:

[0026] The method of the invention is an emergency decision-making method based on scenario analysis. This method selects the most valuable candidate source scenarios from the source scenario library through the retrieval and matching of the target scenario and the source scenario database, and modifies and optimizes the decision-making scheme of the candidate source scenarios. Decision makers deal with emergencies according to the received modified and corrected emergency decision-making plan. By evaluating the disposal effect of the emergency decision-making plan, the theoretical optimal decision-making plan is obtained, which is input and enriched in the source scenario library.

[0027] Step 1. Build the basic scenario library;

[0028] Through the knowledge meta-theoret...

specific Embodiment approach 2

[0047] Specific implementation mode two: the difference between this embodiment mode and specific implementation mode one is: in the described step one, build the base scenario storehouse;

[0048] Through the knowledge meta-theoretical system and the method of scenario modeling theory, the source scenarios in the scenario database can be described in a standardized manner, which can facilitate the subsequent acquisition of source scenario characteristic information and form a unified and standardized expression paradigm of the scenario database. Then start collecting information and building a library of emergency response scenarios.

[0049] The specific process is:

[0050] Step 11: Build a knowledge meta-model:

[0051] The construction of the specific scenario model refers to the common knowledge representation method proposed by Wang Yanzhang to construct the common knowledge meta-model of emergencies, and takes the knowledge meta-model as the basic knowledge meta-model...

specific Embodiment approach 3

[0061] Specific embodiment three: the difference between this embodiment and specific embodiment one or two is that:

[0062] Severe weather knowledge elements include rainstorm event knowledge elements, typhoon event knowledge elements, sea fog event knowledge elements, and frost event knowledge elements;

[0063] Geological disaster knowledge elements include earthquake disaster knowledge elements and tsunami disaster knowledge elements;

[0064] Knowledge elements of transportation production accidents include knowledge elements of transportation accidents, knowledge elements of hazardous chemical leakage accidents, and knowledge elements of fire accidents;

[0065] The bridge and tunnel structure accident knowledge element includes the bridge structure accident knowledge element and the tunnel structure accident knowledge element;

[0066] Knowledge elements of social security accidents include knowledge elements of mass incidents and terrorist attacks;

[0067] Environm...

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Abstract

The invention relates to an emergency decision-making method of an emergency based on scenario analysis. The purpose of the invention is to solve the problem that the existing emergency response mechanism is unreasonable, Emergency management personnel directly relying on experience or using artificial neural network to carry out emergency decision-making methods cannot shorten the response time,which is not in line with the actual situation, resulting in low efficiency and low accuracy of emergency management. A method for emergency decision-making based on scenario analysis includes the following steps: step 1, constructing a basic scenario database; step 2, extracting feature element knowledge elements of that target scenario from the target scenario, input the feature element knowledge elements of the target scenario into a basic scenario database for searching and matching, and obtaining a corresponding emergency decision scheme; The invention belongs to the field of emergency traffic management.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to an emergency decision-making method for emergencies and belongs to the field of emergency traffic management. Background technique [0002] At present, the conventional emergency management mechanisms in various cities have been very developed, but with the increase in the number of emergencies, the city's emergency response time has a great impact on the emergency response time of emergencies, in order to improve the operation of emergency decision-making In terms of efficiency, scholars have proposed many optimization methods. [0003] Domestic research on emergency decision-making management started relatively late. Xue Lan proposed a Markov chain-based multi-attribute emergency decision-making method for decision-making subjects. Wang Qingquan adopted a multi-data fusion method to effectively solve the problems of inconsistent information sources and heterogeneous data in unconventional emergencies. [0004] At this stag...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/26
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/26
Inventor 王健刘文佳左文泽胡晓伟
Owner HARBIN INST OF TECH
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