Automobile part demand dynamic prediction method and system and storage medium

Abstract

The invention relates to an automobile part demand dynamic prediction method, solving the problem of inaccurate spare part prediction in the prior art. The automobile part demand dynamic prediction method comprises the following steps: obtaining historical data of motor vehicle ownership in a target area, and establishing Poisson distribution of the motor vehicle ownership; acquiring the traveledmileage of each motor vehicle in the target area and the fault probability of the target part corresponding to each traveled mileage, and establishing Weibull distribution of the fault rate of the target part based on the traveled mileage of the motor vehicle; determining an expected value of the demand of a random motor vehicle for the target part based on the Weibull distribution; and determining the demand quantity of the target part in the target area in unit time based on the Poisson distribution of the motor vehicle ownership and the expected value. The automobile part demand dynamic prediction method has the advantages that the problem that fitting of the demand quantity of the accessories is inaccurate due to the fact that the failure rates of the accessories are different in the use period is solved, and the demand quantity can be dynamically predicted according to the use conditions of the parts, so that prediction of the demand quantity of the parts is more accurate.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of automobile spare parts forecasting, and in particular relates to a method, system and storage medium for dynamic forecasting of demand for auto parts. Background technique [0002] With the rapid development of the economy and the prosperity of the automobile market, auto parts, as an important part of the after-sales service management of vehicles, provide the development foundation for the middle and upper reaches of the automobile industry chain. The automobile industry must be supported by a strong auto parts system. Whether effective and scientific management of spare parts can be realized will directly affect the service performance and economic benefits of automobile after-sales service and automobile sales. In order to win in the fierce market competition, the auto repair industry needs to provide auto parts to customers at the fastest speed and at the lowest cost to meet the needs of customers. But on the...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0005] In order to solve the problem of inaccurate forecasting of demand for auto parts in the prior art, the present invention provides a

Images