Power load prediction method based on variational mode decomposition and gating cycle unit

Abstract

The invention provides a power load prediction method based on variational mode decomposition and a gating cycle unit, and belongs to the technical field of power load prediction. The power load prediction method comprises the following steps: S1, acquiring original load data; S2, decomposing the original load data into a modal function by adopting a variational modal decomposition method; S3, performing normalization processing on the modal function, and dividing the modal function into a training set and a test set; S4, performing gating cycle unit network training on the training set, and establishing a prediction model according to a training result; S5, detecting the prediction model by using a loss function until a loss function value is reduced to be less than a threshold value; andS6, substituting the test set into the prediction model and superposing to obtain a power load prediction result, and evaluating the prediction result. The method is accurate in prediction of data with volatility and randomness, can effectively improve the speed of the model, and can well solve the problem of load prediction of a power system.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a power load forecasting method based on variational mode decomposition and gated cycle unit, in particular to the technical field of power load forecasting. Background technique [0002] The power system is composed of a power grid and power users. The role of the power grid is to provide reliable and standard-compliant electric energy to various users as economically as possible to meet the load demand of the user side at any time. However, due to the particularity of the production and use of electricity, electricity cannot be stored on a large scale. This requires the system to generate electricity to keep up with changes in system load at any time to achieve dynamic balance, otherwise, it will affect the quality of power supply and consumption. Therefore, power load forecasting is an important part of power system automation. [0003] With the development of new energy technologies, large-scale intermittent new energy po...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] With the development of new energy technologies, large-scale intermittent new energy power generation systems and the wide access of new load types such as electric vehicles and demand-side response have brought about the highly random and dynamic characteristics of the power system. Forecasting methods pose significant challenges

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