Road traffic accident form prediction method

Abstract

The invention discloses a road traffic accident form prediction method. The method comprises the following steps of: 1, collecting and processing road traffic accident data; 2, discretizing continuous independent variables in the traffic accident data by adopting a minimum description length criterion; 3, mining interaction among the independent variables by adopting an attribute selection method based on association rules in the field of data mining; 4, establishing a hybrid Logit model, and performing parameter estimation by adopting a maximum likelihood estimation method; and 5, based on the constructed hybrid Logit model, predicting the traffic accident form probability. In the continuous independent variable discretization process, information of predictive variables is fully utilized, the influence of the interaction among the variables on the accident form is mined, the information loss of discretized variables is reduced, the problem of wrong inference caused by neglect of the interaction among the variables is solved, the prediction precision of a traffic accident form prediction model is improved, and technical support is provided for improvement of a road traffic safety environment.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a road traffic accident form prediction method, which belongs to the technical field of road traffic safety analysis. Background technique [0002] According to the "Global Status Report on Road Safety 2018", the annual number of traffic fatalities in the world climbed to 1.35 million, of which 80% occurred in middle-income countries. As the largest middle-income country, China has more than 240,000 traffic accidents every year, resulting in more than 60,000 deaths, and the traffic safety situation is grim. For different types of traffic accidents, the influencing factors are significantly different. It is one of the important measures to improve traffic safety to construct the relationship between traffic accident patterns and influencing factors such as drivers, roads, and environment, so as to predict traffic accident patterns. [0003] In terms of accident shape prediction methods, fixed parameter discrete selection model...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] In order to overcome the deficiencies of the prior art, the present invention proposes a road traffic accident form prediction method in order to make full use of the information of the predictor variables in the discrete process of continuous independent variables and tap the influence of the interaction between variables on the accident form, so as to Reduce the information loss of discrete variables, overcome the problem of erroneous inferences caused by ignoring the interaction between variables, thereby improving the prediction accuracy of the traffic accident shape prediction model

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