Transfer equipment consumption optimal combination prediction method based on uncertain weight

Abstract

The invention relates to a turnover equipment consumption optimal combination prediction method based on an uncertain weight. The method comprises the following steps: respectively constructing single prediction models by adopting a three-term moving average method, a four-term moving average method, a primary exponential smoothing method, a secondary exponential smoothing method, a cubic exponential smoothing method, a grey system prediction method and a unary regression analysis method; constructing a combined prediction model by using different numbers of single prediction models; performing optimization combination on the seven different single prediction models, comparing weighting coefficients which are respectively solved by adopting an arithmetic average method, a simple weighted average method and a quadratic programming method, and selecting an optimal weighting coefficient as a weighting coefficient of the combined model; and comprehensively evaluating the combined prediction model by adopting the error sum of squares, the mean square error and the Hille unequal coefficient, selecting one group with the minimum prediction error as an optimal combined prediction model, and predicting the consumption of the turnover equipment according to the optimal combined prediction model. The method is high in precision of predicting the consumption quantity of the turnover equipment.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of maintenance of aviation equipment, relates to the prediction technology of the consumption of revolving equipment, and in particular relates to a method for predicting the optimal combination of consumption of revolving equipment based on uncertain weights. Background technique [0002] Turnover equipment refers to equipment that is guaranteed for daily supply. There are many types and quantities of revolving equipment, and it also takes up a lot of aviation material support funds. How to accurately predict the consumption of revolving equipment has always been the focus and difficulty of aviation material support work. At present, the existing single prediction methods have certain deficiencies in the prediction accuracy of turnover equipment consumption, which will produce large prediction errors, while the combined prediction method is not sensitive to a single poor prediction method, which can improve...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] It can be seen from the above that although there are many researches on the forecasting method of aviation material consumption combination, there is no systematic study on the report on the consumption combination forecasting of turnover materials.

Images