Method for forecasting growth and hail reduction stages of hail embryos in hail violence process under complex terrain

A complex terrain and stage technology, applied in the forecast field of growth and hailfall stages, can solve the problems of the formation stage of few hail embryos, the forecast indication of the formation stage of few hail embryos, and the inability to obtain quantitative characteristic forecast indicators of hail clouds, etc.

Pending Publication Date: 2022-07-05
CHENGDU UNIV OF INFORMATION TECH
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Problems solved by technology

[0005] After patent and literature search, most of the published hailstorm early warnings focus on the qualitative analysis and exploration of the observation data at the macro level, and seldom involve the forecast indication of the formation stage of hail embryos during the hailstorm process, and cannot accurately analyze the Obtain the quantitative characteristic forecast index for the stage of hail embryo in the development process of hail cloud at the microscopic level
[0006] Through the above analysis, the existing problems and defects of the existing technology are as follows: most of the existing hailstorm early warnings focus on the qualitative analysis and exploration of the observation data at the macro level, and seldom involve the forecast indication of the hail embryo formation stage in the hailstorm process , it is impossible to accurately obtain the quantitative characteristic forecast index for the stage of the hail embryo in the development process of the hail cloud from the microscopic level

Method used

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  • Method for forecasting growth and hail reduction stages of hail embryos in hail violence process under complex terrain
  • Method for forecasting growth and hail reduction stages of hail embryos in hail violence process under complex terrain
  • Method for forecasting growth and hail reduction stages of hail embryos in hail violence process under complex terrain

Examples

Experimental program
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Effect test

experiment example 1

[0084] The hailstorm process of experimental example 1 occurred on March 30, 2018. The whole process lasted for 34 minutes. The strongest echo was 61.6dBZ. The area with a large value greater than 55dBZ and hail fell, and moved out of Weining at 17:29.

[0085] like image 3 As shown in a, it is the time of 16:44 in the experimental example 1, and the time of 16:49 is as follows figure 2 As shown in middle b, the height of the echo top increases rapidly from 5km to more than 6km, and the maximum reflectivity reaches 54.2dBZ. After interpolating the corresponding height layer of the temperature layer in the sounding data at 20:00 on the same day, it can be obtained that the 0°C height layer is 4.1km, and the -20°C height layer is 7.3km, that is, the thickness H of the 0°C to -20°C height layer S It is 3.2km, so it meets the requirements of the selected example in this embodiment.

[0086] like Figure 4 As shown in the figure, the variation ratio of supercooled water, the ...

experiment example 2

[0088] The hailstorm process of experimental example 2 occurred on May 18, 2018. The whole process lasted for 60 minutes. The strongest echo was 67.2dBZ. The squall line system was generated in Weining Shuanglong. At this time, a large value area greater than 55dBZ appeared in the monomer, and the hail began to fall at 17:03, and entered the dissipation stage at 17:41.

[0089] like Figure 7 As shown in a, it is the time of 16:48 of the experimental example 2, and the time of 16:54 is as follows Figure 7 As shown in b, the height of the echo top increases rapidly from 9km to more than 10km, and the maximum reflectivity reaches 61.8dBZ. After interpolating the height layer corresponding to the temperature layer in the sounding data at 20:00 on the same day, it can be obtained that the 0°C height layer is 5.2km, and the -20°C height layer is 8.3km, that is, the thickness H of the 0°C to -20°C height layer S It is 3.1km, so it meets the requirements of the selected example in...

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Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of meteorological early warning methods, and discloses a method for forecasting growth and hail reduction stages of hail embryos in a hail violence process under complex terrains, which comprises the following steps of: acquiring related data, and performing quality preprocessing on the acquired data; performing aqueous substance particle identification on the preprocessed data by adopting a fuzzy logic particle phase state identification algorithm to obtain the number of key particles, the change rate along with time and the change rate ratio along with time, and finally obtaining a hail embryo stage prediction index of the key particles; and judging the stage of the hail embryo according to the hail embryo stage prediction index, and issuing corresponding hail storm early warning. According to the hail embryo stage prediction index, the stage where the hail embryo is located can be analyzed from the micro-physical process, whether the hail embryo is in the development and growth stage or the hail generation stage can be judged, and early warning is provided for hail violence under complex terrains.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of meteorological early warning methods, in particular to a method for forecasting the growth of hail embryos and the stages of hailfall in a hailstorm process under complex terrain. Background technique [0002] At present, hail is a solid precipitation phenomenon that occurs under strong convective conditions. It has the characteristics of strong locality, short duration, significant impact by terrain, and high intensity. It is often accompanied by strong winds, heavy rains and other weather processes. The complex terrain causes frequent intersection of cold and warm air, frequent hail disasters, and brings huge losses to agriculture and transportation. [0003] Understanding the stage of hail embryos is of great significance to the development of hail and accurate identification of hail in hail prevention operations. At present, many scholars have carried out relevant research on hail embryos. The study ...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G01W1/10G01S7/41G01S13/95
CPCG01W1/10G01S7/41G01S7/411G01S13/95
Inventor 周筠珺赵梓利
Owner CHENGDU UNIV OF INFORMATION TECH
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