Low-cost photovoltaic power prediction method based on city weather forecasts

Abstract

The invention discloses a low-cost photovoltaic power prediction method based on city weather forecasts. The low-cost photovoltaic power prediction method comprises the steps of first obtaining penetration coefficients of extrasolar solar radiation through the atmosphere by calculating the extrasolar radiation intensity through a Sun-Earth model; then obtaining a weather forecast type classifier model of statistic penetration coefficients which can be obtained; then obtaining the statistic penetration coefficients of 14 days ago; conducting subtraction of the penetration coefficients and the obtained statistic penetration coefficients to obtain a difference value sequence; conducting multiply-accumulate of the different value sequence with a corresponding weight sequence to obtain a penetration coefficient error; correcting the statistic penetration coefficients under a weather type predicted on the same day through the penetration coefficient error; meanwhile, using a solar radiation intensity curve on the prediction day to reversely obtain a prediction solar radiation intensity curve; and obtaining a generated power prediction curve of a power station through the light intensity-power relation. The low-cost photovoltaic power prediction method based on the city weather forecasts can achieve real-time prediction based on the release of weather state forecasts and does not rely on high-cost numerical weather forecast products, and the cost of the generated power forecast is reduced.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of new energy power generation forecasting, and more specifically, relates to a low-cost photovoltaic power generation power forecasting method based on city weather forecast. Background technique [0002] Since the energy of photovoltaic power generation comes from the sun, and the intensity of solar radiation is affected by the weather, it cannot be directly predicted. The prediction of photovoltaic power generation can only be realized through the indirect prediction of weather conditions. Therefore, when predicting the power of photovoltaic power generation, it is necessary to use weather forecast support. At present, the prediction methods of photovoltaic power generation at home and abroad are all based on numerical weather prediction. Numerical weather prediction needs to be purchased and customized from the meteorological department, which is expensive. In addition, numerical weather prediction prod...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

This method requires detailed historical meteorological data, and the support of numerical weather prediction is also required for prediction. It does not consider the difference between historical numerical weather prediction and historical measured weather data to correct future predictions, and the calculation amount is large.

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