Prediction method of maximum temperature of overhead transmission line based on echo state network

Abstract

The invention relates to an overhead transmission line maximum temperature forecasting method based on an echo state network and belongs to the field of relay protection on power system transmission lines. The method comprises the steps of forecasting the maximum temperature difference deltaTmax(n) along the transmission line based on the echo state network, forecasting the temperature rise variation A (n) based on the echo state network, forecasting the temperature rise variation B (n) based on the echo state network, forecasting the local conductor temperature Tlocal(n) of a transformer substation by virtue of iteration according to the A (n) and the B (n) in combination with the environmental temperature data Ta acquired at the current moment, and adding the forecasted maximum temperature difference deltaTmax(n) along the line and the forecasted local conductor temperature Tlocal(n) to obtain the forecasted maximum temperature difference Tmax(n) along the line. According to the overhead transmission line maximum temperature forecasting method based on the echo state network, the potential current-carrying capability of the line is excavated as much as possible, the conductor temperature is pre-evaluated and the protection action time is adjusted adaptively, and therefore, more time is gained for scheduling and for the emergency control system to take measures to eliminate overload.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power system protection and control, and in particular relates to a line maximum temperature prediction method based on an echo state network applied to an overhead power transmission line. Background technique [0002] The temperature of overhead transmission lines is the common result of Joule heat absorption, heat absorption from the outside world and heat dissipation to the outside world. The transient heat balance equation of the wire currently used is shown in equation (1): [0003] [0004] In formula (1), m is the mass of the wire (it can also be expressed by density), and C p is the specific heat capacity of the wire, T C is the wire temperature, t is the time; P j is Joule heat absorption, P s Heat absorption for sunlight; P c For convection cooling, P r For radiation cooling. [0005] In order to improve the solution efficiency, the transient heat balance formula is usually regarded a...

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Problems solved by technology

[0009] The purpose of the present invention is to solve the problem of low accuracy of the traditional conductor transient temperature rise calculation method, and propose a method for predicting the maximum temperature of overhead transmission lines based on echo state network, and the present invention is applied to adaptive overload protection of overhead transmission lines Prediction of the transient temperature rise of the wires can tap the potential current carrying capacity of the line as much as possible, estimate the temperature of the wires and adjust the protection action time adaptively, so as to gain more time for the dispatching and emergency control system to take measures to eliminate overload

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