Method for evaluating reliability of system with grid-connected photovoltaic power station

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for evaluating the reliability of a system with a grid-connected photovoltaic power station, belonging to the technical field of electrical power system control. The major consideration is given to photovoltaic power station output modeling with the combination of multi-state transition and time sequence information and to calculation of a threshold of the effect of a photovoltaic access system on a reliability index. The method comprises: employing fuzzy c-means clustering to make a clustering analysis of historical data of a photovoltaic power station according to four different weather types; establishing a transition probability matrix of power generation states of the photovoltaic power station on the basis of a clustering result; classifying the transition states of the photovoltaic power station into 16 basic types; performing ARMA time sequence modeling of the transition states; and finally establishing a complete output model with state transition and time sequence features of the photovoltaic power station considered. The model can relatively truly simulate the output condition of the photovoltaic power station. By means of the output model, the effect on the system reliability after photovoltaic accesses the system is tested. The method is simple and practical and plays an active role in evaluation of the effect of photovoltaic access on the system.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power system control, in particular to a system reliability evaluation method including a grid-connected photovoltaic power station. Background technique [0002] As one of the important renewable energy power generation methods, solar photovoltaic power generation has attracted more and more attention from various countries, and has been rapidly developed and applied. my country's "Renewable Energy Medium and Long-term Development Plan" proposes that by 2020, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation will reach 2000MWp, with a planned annual growth rate of more than 15%. [0003] With the increasing proportion of photovoltaic power station installed capacity in the power system, its random, intermittent and periodic characteristics have a great impact on the operation planning, scheduling control, reliability and other aspects of the power system. The analysis of the impact on the reliabil...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, in the existing research on the output modeling of photovoltaic power plants, there is a lack of modeling methods that consider the combination of multi-state transition models and time-series models at the same time, and state transition information and time-series information are two elements that cannot be ignored in photovoltaic power generation.

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