Human error and structure defect-considering ocean platform fire risk assessment method

An ocean platform and human error technology, applied in the field of risk assessment of fire probability, can solve problems such as lack of data, inability to truly simulate dynamics and dynamics of human-computer interaction, relying on expert judgment, etc., to achieve the goal of reducing the risk of fire Effect

Active Publication Date: 2017-04-26
CHINA UNIV OF PETROLEUM (EAST CHINA)
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The current HOE analysis method mainly has the following shortcomings: lack of sufficient data, relying more on expert judgment; unable to truly simulate the dynamics of cognitive processes and human-computer interaction; the credibility of the method is difficult to verify, etc.

Method used

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  • Human error and structure defect-considering ocean platform fire risk assessment method
  • Human error and structure defect-considering ocean platform fire risk assessment method
  • Human error and structure defect-considering ocean platform fire risk assessment method

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Embodiment Construction

[0020] The specific embodiments of the present invention are described below so that those skilled in the art can understand the present invention, but it should be clear that the present invention is not limited to the scope of the specific embodiments. For those of ordinary skill in the art, as long as various changes Within the spirit and scope of the present invention defined and determined by the appended claims, these changes are obvious, and all inventions and creations using the concept of the present invention are included in the protection list.

[0021] refer to figure 1 , figure 1 A flowchart 100 illustrating one embodiment of a method for assessing fire risk on an offshore platform that takes into account human error and organizational deficiencies. Such as figure 1 As shown, the method 100 includes step 101 to step 105 .

[0022] In step 101, according to the characteristics of offshore platform fire accidents, establish an HFACS model suitable for the analysi...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a human error and structure defect-considering ocean platform fire risk assessment method. The method comprises the following steps of: establishing an HFACS model suitable for ocean platform human error analysis according to the features of an ocean platform fire accident, determining technical factors and human factor organizational factors of the ocean platform fire, and constructing an ocean platform fire dynamic Bayesian network model; calculating a prior probability of the human factor organizational factors in the dynamic Bayesian network model; calculating a conditional probability describing all the variables of the fire accident occurrence and development process in the dynamic Bayesian network model on the basis of a triangular fuzzy function and level node distance formula; calculating a transition probability of all the variables of the fire accident occurrence and development process in the dynamic Bayesian network model on the basis of a Markov model; and calculating an ocean platform fire occurrence probability by adoption of Netica software according to the calculated prior probability, conditional probability and transition probability.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a risk assessment method for fire occurrence probability, in particular to a fire risk assessment method for an offshore platform considering human errors and organizational defects. Background technique [0002] Offshore platforms have a harsh environment, highly concentrated equipment, a large number of flammable and explosive substances, and leakage sources such as oil and gas pipelines and flanges. Coupled with some human factors, it is easy to cause oil and gas leakage, which may cause fires and explosions. This is not only It will cause casualties and major economic losses, and will also cause serious pollution and damage to the offshore surrounding environment and marine ecology. The high cost of offshore platforms, the severity of fire consequences and the complex and changeable sea environment determine the necessity and difficulty of fire risk assessment. [0003] Offshore oil and gas development is recognized as one...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06
CPCG06Q10/0635
Inventor 王彦富秦桃孙小菲刘帅李彪李玉莲
Owner CHINA UNIV OF PETROLEUM (EAST CHINA)
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