Method for Establishing Prediction and Forecasting Model of Maize Herbivorous Harmful Thrips
A forecasting model and phytophagous technology, applied in grain cultivation, etc., can solve problems such as unpredictable forecasting, achieve the effects of reducing hazards, improving yield and quality, and supporting accurate data
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Embodiment 1
[0020] The present embodiment 1 relates to a method for establishing a corn phytophagous harmful thrips prediction model, comprising the following steps:
[0021] 1) Investigate the whole corn plant after emergence to before tasseling, collect herbivorous thrips in corn leaf sheaths and heart leaves, and count the number y of corn herbivorous harmful thrips, and establish the time dynamics of the number of corn herbivorous harmful thrips. Simultaneously investigate the corn leaf age, that is, the number of fully expanded corn leaves, and establish the time dynamics of the corn leaf age quantity, and obtain the temperature and rainfall data during the investigation period from the Meteorological Bureau;
[0022] 2) Using R statistical analysis software, after a large number of model fitting and model biological significance screening, the generalized Poisson logarithmic linear model was selected. Due to the large difference between the number of thrips y and the number of temper...
Embodiment 2
[0033] Immediately conduct surveys at the second leaf stage of corn, and investigate three representative corn fields with consistent growth. The area of each corn field is not less than 50 mu. No less than 300 corn plants were selected and surveyed every 2 days.
[0034] During the survey, after the corn plant was cut off slightly from the stem close to the ground, the heart leaves and leaf sheaths were immediately peeled off, and the number of corn herbivorous thrips on it was investigated and counted. It should be noted that when investigating corn heart leaves, because thrips are harmful inside the heart leaves, it is necessary to peel off the corn heart leaves layer by layer, check and record the number of corn herbivorous thrips. Use a brush dipped in alcohol to pick the thrips on the corn plants into a vial filled with alcohol prepared in advance, and record the number of thrips in each corn plant in detail. Among them, the small bottle containing alcohol contains 75% ...
Embodiment 3
[0040] Prediction model 2 of maize herbivorous harmful thrips accurately fitted to the corn variety Jintian 878 (sweet corn) is LnY=0.6371+0.2240×T1-0.0196×R1+0.4571×L1, and the analysis table of relevant parameter values is as follows:
[0041] Table 1 Analysis table of generalized linear Poisson regression model
[0042]
[0043] Note: * means not significant; ** means significant
[0044] In Model 2 of Example 3, Y represents the number of thrips, T1 represents the average daily temperature, R1 represents the average daily rainfall, and L1 represents the leaf age of maize. Currently, in this model 2, the daily average temperature is 14.6°C-28.75°C, the rainfall is 0mm-29.4mm, and the number of corn leaves is 1-17. It should be noted that the values here are the ranges of the actual measured values of each parameter when the model is established to collect data, and are mainly used to illustrate the range of parameter values that Model 2 can be applied to, becaus...
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