Domino effect-based coal gasification device risk probability calculation method

A technology of risk probability and calculation method, applied in the direction of calculation, data processing application, instrument, etc., to achieve the effect of reducing the incidence rate, improving reliability and practicability

Pending Publication Date: 2020-06-05
NANJING UNIV OF TECH
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] There are two hazardous substances, syngas and coal dust, in the coal gasification plant, but only one hazardous substance was considered in previo

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  • Domino effect-based coal gasification device risk probability calculation method
  • Domino effect-based coal gasification device risk probability calculation method
  • Domino effect-based coal gasification device risk probability calculation method

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Embodiment Construction

[0011] In order to make the purpose, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention are clearly and completely described below. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all Example. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by persons of ordinary skill in the art without creative efforts fall within the protection scope of the present invention.

[0012] see figure 1 As shown, the present invention evaluates the expansion risk of the coal gasification plant domino accident by building a hierarchical evaluation index system including four first-level indicators and eleven second-level indicators and uses the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to obtain the expansion probability. The expansion probability is Basically update the conditional probability table in the Bayesian networ...

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Abstract

The invention relates to the field of engineering risk assessment. The invention discloses a domino effect-based coal gasification device risk probability calculation method. A hierarchical evaluationindex system comprising four first-level indexes and eleven second-level indexes is built, and a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is used for evaluating the expansion risk of the domino accident of the coal gasification device; the expansion risk is divided into three levels, parameter ranges corresponding to different secondary indexes are determined, different index actual values are inputted to obtain the expansion risk, a conditional probability table in the Bayesian network is updated on the basis of the expansion probability, and finally the domino risk probability of the region is obtained. According to the method, meteorological factors, safety protection measures and expanded device characteristics except physical factors are comprehensively considered, so that the reliability and practicability of a risk probability assessment result are improved, the safety defense work is correctly guided, and the occurrence rate of domino accidents in the chemical industry park is reduced.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of engineering risk assessment, in particular to a method for calculating the risk probability of a coal gasification device based on the domino effect. Background technique [0002] my country's chemical industry, especially the coal chemical industry, has developed very rapidly in recent years, and there are more and more large-scale chemical parks. The internal area layout is compact, and mechanical equipment can be seen everywhere. Due to the basic characteristics of chemical industry parks, fire and explosion are relatively typical types of accidents in chemical industry parks, among which domino accidents with the greatest damage also occur from time to time, and the harm they bring is far more than a single fire or explosion accident. A domino accident refers to the situation in which the physical impact of the initial accident expands to the second accident, the third accident and more accidents sequentially t...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/06393G06Q50/06
Inventor 王志荣赵丹宋泽阳
Owner NANJING UNIV OF TECH
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