Domino effect-based coal gasification device risk probability calculation method

Abstract

The invention relates to the field of engineering risk assessment. The invention discloses a domino effect-based coal gasification device risk probability calculation method. A hierarchical evaluationindex system comprising four first-level indexes and eleven second-level indexes is built, and a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is used for evaluating the expansion risk of the domino accident of the coal gasification device; the expansion risk is divided into three levels, parameter ranges corresponding to different secondary indexes are determined, different index actual values are inputted to obtain the expansion risk, a conditional probability table in the Bayesian network is updated on the basis of the expansion probability, and finally the domino risk probability of the region is obtained. According to the method, meteorological factors, safety protection measures and expanded device characteristics except physical factors are comprehensively considered, so that the reliability and practicability of a risk probability assessment result are improved, the safety defense work is correctly guided, and the occurrence rate of domino accidents in the chemical industry park is reduced.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of engineering risk assessment, in particular to a method for calculating the risk probability of a coal gasification device based on the domino effect. Background technique [0002] my country's chemical industry, especially the coal chemical industry, has developed very rapidly in recent years, and there are more and more large-scale chemical parks. The internal area layout is compact, and mechanical equipment can be seen everywhere. Due to the basic characteristics of chemical industry parks, fire and explosion are relatively typical types of accidents in chemical industry parks, among which domino accidents with the greatest damage also occur from time to time, and the harm they bring is far more than a single fire or explosion accident. A domino accident refers to the situation in which the physical impact of the initial accident expands to the second accident, the third accident and more accidents sequentially t...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] There are two hazardous substances, syngas and coal dust, in the coal gasification plant, but only one hazardous substance was considered in previous Domino assessments, so it is very necessary to propose a Domino extended assessment method that can comprehensively assess the two hazardous substances

Images