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Load prediction method and load prediction system based on general distribution

A technology of load forecasting and general distribution, applied in the field of forecasting systems, can solve the problems of low forecasting accuracy and excessive dependence, and achieve the effect of high fitting accuracy

Active Publication Date: 2020-08-18
JIANGSU ELECTRIC POWER CO +1
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Problems solved by technology

[0005] In the existing research methods of electricity consumption forecasting, the model of the multiple regression model is simple, the theory is perfect, and can fully consider various influencing factors, but it is easy to cause low prediction accuracy due to improper selection of factors.
Conventional mathematical models have good short-term prediction effects, but rely too much on mathematical and physical mechanisms, which have great limitations in long-term prediction and practical applications

Method used

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  • Load prediction method and load prediction system based on general distribution
  • Load prediction method and load prediction system based on general distribution
  • Load prediction method and load prediction system based on general distribution

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Embodiment Construction

[0061] The technical solution of the present invention will be further introduced in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.

[0062] as attached figure 1 Shown is a schematic flow chart of a general distributed load forecasting method disclosed in this application. Said includes the following steps:

[0063] A load forecasting method based on general distribution, comprising the following steps:

[0064] Step 1, collect the historical data of the load power and temperature of the load to be predicted in the set time period by time:

[0065] This application preferably collects the load power of the load to be predicted at 24 hours a day and the temperature data at the corresponding time in the last three months; among them, in the historical data, the sampling period of the load power is 1min, that is, corresponding to each load The power data point is the active power at 1 minute; the sampling period of temperature data is 5 mi...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a load prediction method and prediction system based on general distribution, and aims to realize short-term load power prediction of a power system. According to the method, historical meteorological information data and electrical data are combined, and corresponding statistical analysis models are constructed for different temperature increment levels. Firstly, a histogram model is adopted to approximately represent actual distribution, then a proper model is selected to fit the actual distribution, a universal distribution function model is adopted to fit, and a confidence interval of predicted power under a certain confidence level is obtained according to a closed analytical expression of an inverse function of a universal distribution CDF function.

Description

Technical field: [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of electric load forecasting, and in particular relates to a load forecasting method and a forecasting system based on the impact of universally distributed meteorological factors on load power consumption. Background technique: [0002] With the improvement of the national economic level, the demand for electric power is also increasing. To carry out scientific and reasonable dispatching of electric power, many factors need to be considered, among which temperature is an important influencing factor. Changes in temperature will cause significant changes in regional load power in both residential and industrial electricity. On the one hand, the use of civilian high-power power-consuming equipment (such as refrigeration, heating and other electrical equipment) is closely related to meteorological factors such as temperature; on the other hand, changes in temperature will also affect the production plan of en...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F17/18G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06F17/18G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 陶叶炜徐箭董甜华夏麦锦雯柏筱飞项敏周力童充钱艺琳李荷婷王丹陆峰廖思阳吴迪杨昊沈韵
Owner JIANGSU ELECTRIC POWER CO
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