Electric power system risk assessment common cause failure sampling method

Abstract

The invention discloses an electric power system risk assessment common cause failure sampling method. The method comprises the steps that a plurality of elements where common cause failures occur during electric power system risk assessment are given, the random number representing the failure state of each element independently is obtained through sampling respectively at first, then a dependency sampling matrix is built, and the random numbers representing the failure states of the elements respectively and obtained through sampling are converted into the random numbers representing the failure states and considering the common cause failure dependency sampling according to the dependency sampling matrix. Further more, the converted random numbers are compared with the failure probabilities of the elements, and finally the failure states of the common cause failure elements are determined through one sampling process. The electric power system risk assessment common cause failure sampling method uses a correlation coefficient matrix to carry out conversion on sampling values, changes independent sampling into dependency sampling, and achieves the sampling of electric power system risk assessment common cause failures. The electric power system risk assessment common cause failure sampling method is simple and suitable, can achieve common cause sampling accurately and is applied to the sampling of electric power system risk assessment common cause failures.

Description

Technical field [0001] The present invention involves a sampling method for the failure of the power system in the risk assessment of the power system.It belongs to the field of power system risk assessment technology. Background technique [0002] The safety risk assessment method of the power system through the establishment of the suspension model of the power system transmission line, transformer, and generator sets to calculate the probability and consequences of the power system accident, and then quantitatively combine the possibility and severity of the accident, which can be more comprehensive.The influence of the accident on the entire power system is reflected, and the relationship between the operational security and economy of the power system is better coordinated.Document (Li WenYuan, Model, Methods, and Applications of Electric Power System Risk Evaluation, Beijing: Science Press, 2006) established the basic theory of power system risk assessment and proposed the ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0007] The purpose of the present invention is to address the problem of common cause failures in components in power system risk assessment, and propose a method that can realize common cause failure sampling. On the basis of independent sampling, the correlation coefficient matrix is ​​used to transform, and the irrelevant sampling Transformed into correlation sampling, thus meeting the requirements of correlation sampling of common cause fault components

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