Fault tree analysis method based on Monte Carlo simulation

A fault tree analysis and fault tree technology, applied in design optimization/simulation, special data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve the problems of unknown life distribution of bottom events, large amount of logic operations, etc., and meet the requirements and constraints of engineering practice Small, easy program to achieve the effect

Inactive Publication Date: 2016-10-26
NORTHWESTERN POLYTECHNICAL UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

[0012] In order to overcome the shortcomings in the prior art that there is a large amount of logic operations and cannot be used for fault trees with known bottom

Method used

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  • Fault tree analysis method based on Monte Carlo simulation
  • Fault tree analysis method based on Monte Carlo simulation
  • Fault tree analysis method based on Monte Carlo simulation

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[0049] The present invention provides a method for analyzing the fault tree based on the Monte Carlo simulation method, which is used for the reliability calculation of the system represented by the fault tree. The specific process of the present invention is:

[0050] Step 1. Determine the bottom event, intermediate event and top event in the fault tree. If one event can cause another event to occur, the previous event is called the cause event, and the latter event is called the result event. In the fault tree, cause events and result events are connected by logic gates, and the lower end of the logic gate is the cause event and the upper end is the result event.

[0051] In the fault tree: the bottom event is the cause event that causes other events. It is located at the bottom of the fault tree. It is always the input event of a logic gate rather than the output event; the bottom event is represented by a circular symbol, and the upper end of the circular symbol is The logic ...

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Abstract

A fault tree analysis method based on Monte Carlo simulation is characterized in that through a simulation implementation course of a Monte Carlo sampling method in a fault tree, solution of a fault tree structure function or all the minimum cutsets is avoided; a top event occurrence probability existing when bottom event life distribution obeys an arbitrary distribution function can be obtained; and the system top event occurrence probability existing when a system runs to a moment, the bottom event occurrence probability is known and the life distribution is unknown can be obtained. The method provided by the invention is applicable to the fault tree composed of bottom events which obey various types of life distribution and can be used to obtain the top event occurrence probability existing when the bottom event occurrence probability is known and the life distribution is unknown. Hence, the method is characterized by smaller and fewer limiting conditions and simple solution courses.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of system engineering reliability evaluation, in particular to a method for simulating a fault tree based on a Monte Carlo sampling principle to calculate the occurrence probability of a top event. Background technique [0002] The fault tree is a graphical representation of the interaction between the fault logic and other events in the system. Using the fault tree to solve the system reliability has become the most commonly used method in the field of system reliability analysis. The fault tree regards the least expected event of the system as the top event (analysis target) of the fault tree, and traces all possible causes down layer by layer, so as to find out the various factors that lead to the occurrence of the top event and the logic between them and the top event Relationships are represented by an inverted dendrogram. Among them, the events whose causes cannot be further analyzed are called basic ...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F17/50
CPCG06F30/20
Inventor 孙秦王瑶
Owner NORTHWESTERN POLYTECHNICAL UNIV
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