A multi-state risk calculation method for flexible resources

Abstract

The invention discloses a multiple flexible resource multi-state risk calculation method. A single flexible resource schedulable potential value evaluation analysis model is established for a power grid comprising an electric automobile, a heat pump, an air conditioner and a distributed power source, and schedulable potential values of the electric automobile, the heat pump, the air conditioner and the distributed power source can be respectively acquired through the single flexible resource schedulable potential value evaluation analysis model; a multiple flexible resource gathering schedulable potential value evaluation model is established, and a schedulable potential value after multiple flexible resource gathering is acquired by calculation, a multiple flexible resource multi-state risk calculation model is established, different probabilities of the multiple flexible resources in multiple states are acquired, and the multiple flexible resource multi-state risk information is acquired through calculation. The method is advantaged in that the flexible resource risk information of the power grid is acquired under the action of multiple uncertain factors, a risk level of the power grid under the action of uncertain factors is identified, bases are provided for bidirectional interaction between the flexible resources and the power grid, and scientific bases are provided for safe operation of an intelligent power grid.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of power system risk assessment, and in particular relates to a multi-state risk calculation method for flexible resources, which is used for reliability analysis and risk estimation of flexible resources in a power grid. Background technique [0002] In recent years, with the rapid development of social economy, traditional energy resources are increasingly exhausted. In the "post-carbon" era, a new round of energy revolution is the hope for future social development. In order to effectively alleviate the problems of energy crisis and environmental pollution, it is particularly important to use new energy reasonably and effectively. [0003] However, the efficient utilization of large-scale high-permeability new energy is affected by multiple uncertain factors. The output of high-penetration new energy has the characteristics of intermittency, volatility and uncertainty, which makes the consumption of new energy pr...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] However, the role of uncertain internal and external factors, such as equipment failure, meteorological conditions, environmental conditions, operating conditions, etc., will affect the reliability of smart grid flexible resources participating in grid operation

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