Non-linear wind speed simulation method considering divided period

A nonlinear, time-segmented technology, which is applied in the field of nonlinear simulation of wind speed considering time-segmentation, can solve the problem of low accuracy of pure manual segmentation

Active Publication Date: 2017-03-22
XI AN JIAOTONG UNIV +2
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Problems solved by technology

[0006] The purpose of the present invention is to propose a nonlinear wind speed simulation method considering subsections. This method can not only improve the problem of low accuracy of purely manual subsections, but also prevent unrealistic situations that may occur in fully automatic subsections. It has the advantages of Strong versatility and engineering practicability

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  • Non-linear wind speed simulation method considering divided period
  • Non-linear wind speed simulation method considering divided period
  • Non-linear wind speed simulation method considering divided period

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Embodiment Construction

[0072] The specific implementation manner and working principle of the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0073] see figure 1 , a non-linear wind speed simulation method considering sub-periods, including two parts: a sub-section model and a nonlinear time series model, which are specifically divided into the following steps:

[0074] The invention adopts an off-line mutation point detection algorithm based on Bayesian inference, uses the detected mutation point as the segment point position, and uses this algorithm to segment the wind speed to make the segment stable.

[0075] 1. Obtain the prior information of the wind speed time series through engineering practice experience, including the number of segment points L (l=0,...,L), and the initial value t of the estimated position of the segment points l , the swing time τ of the segment point near this position l And the possibility of the segmentatio...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a non-linear wind speed simulation method considering divided period. The method involves two parts of wind speed time sequence division and non-linear time sequence fitting and comprises the steps of firstly, deriving to obtain a division module according to a maximum posterior probability expression, and simultaneously performing division on a non-stationary time sequence by considering distribution characteristic of wind speed sequence, wherein the division module can take actual experience of engineering as wind speed prior information, each segment of sequence after division is a stable sequence, so that the hypothesis that the sequence is required to be stable by a non-linear SIAVAR single index which can be added to a vector autoregression model is solved; secondly, respectively simulating each segment of sequence by applying a non-linear SIAVAR model, wherein non-linear simulation adopts a spline function as global approximation of a non-parameter function in the non-linear model, and half-parameter estimation is performed by Backfitting method; and finally, completing wind speed sequence fitting. By the method, the non-linear characteristic of a wind speed can be simulated very well.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of wind power generation, and in particular relates to a non-linear wind speed simulation method considering time division. Background technique [0002] With the gradual expansion of the grid-connected wind power, the stability and economy of the power grid are facing new challenges. By establishing a mathematical model for wind speed, the inherent nature of wind speed can be studied. Power system dispatchers can predict the wind speed to a certain extent based on the wind speed model. More accurate wind speed simulation can predict the wind speed for a longer period of time in the future. The output of traditional energy and wind power reduces the reserve capacity of traditional energy and the capacity of "abandoned wind", reduces the consumption of traditional energy and improves the economy. [0003] Establishing a more realistic wind speed model is of great significance for mastering the output charact...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F17/50G06Q10/06G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/06375G06Q10/067G06Q50/06G06F2119/12G06F30/367
Inventor 别朝红刘诗雨汪宁渤陈铉谢海鹏丁坤路亮李津周识远邵冲陟晶
Owner XI AN JIAOTONG UNIV
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