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A Non-linear Photovoltaic Output Forecasting Method Considering Time Division

A nonlinear optical and output prediction technology, applied in prediction, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve the problem of low accuracy of pure artificial segmentation

Active Publication Date: 2020-01-21
XI AN JIAOTONG UNIV +2
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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to propose a non-linear photovoltaic output prediction method that considers time divisions. This method can not only improve the problem of low accuracy of pure manual segmentation of solar radiation intensity in a day's time interval, but also prevent completely automatic Segmentation may appear unrealistic, with strong versatility and engineering practicability

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  • A Non-linear Photovoltaic Output Forecasting Method Considering Time Division
  • A Non-linear Photovoltaic Output Forecasting Method Considering Time Division
  • A Non-linear Photovoltaic Output Forecasting Method Considering Time Division

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[0064] The specific implementation manner and working principle of the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0065] see figure 1 , a non-linear photovoltaic output prediction method considering sub-periods, including establishing a sub-section model and a nonlinear time series model to predict the intensity of solar radiation, and establishing a photovoltaic power generation model in two parts, specifically divided into the following steps:

[0066] The present invention is based on the Bayesian inference off-line mutation point detection algorithm, uses the detected mutation point as the segment point position, and uses this algorithm to segment the solar radiation intensity to make the segment stable, and then predicts the photovoltaic output segmentally .

[0067] 1. Through the experience of solar radiation intensity in the morning, middle and evening in engineering practice, obtain the prior informati...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a period division-considered nonlinear photovoltaic power generation output forecasting method. The method comprises two steps of: establishing a division model and a nonlinear time sequence model to forecast solar radiation intensity, and establishing a photovoltaic generated power model: firstly carrying out deduction via a maximum posterior probability to obtain the division model, wherein the division model takes practical engineering experiences as radiation intensity prior information and is used for dividing nonstationary time sequences by considering distribution characteristics of radiation intensity sequences, and each sequence after the division is stationary sequence so that the assumption that nonlinear SIAVAR single-index addible vector auto-regression models require the sequences to be stationary is solved; simulating each sequence by using a nonlinear SIAVAR model; carrying out global approximation on non-parameter functions in the nonlinear model through nonlinear simulation, and carrying out semi-parameter estimation by using a Backfitting method so as to complete radiation intensity time sequence fitting; and establishing a photovoltaic power generation output model according to a relationship between photovoltaic power generation output and the solar radiation intensity, so as to obtain a photovoltaic power generation output forecasting time sequence.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of photovoltaic power generation, and in particular relates to a non-linear photovoltaic output prediction method considering time division. Background technique [0002] As the global energy crisis and environmental protection issues become increasingly prominent, grid-connected photovoltaic power generation has been rapidly popularized and applied due to its advantages of safety, cleanness, long life and potential economy. However, the fluctuation, intermittency and randomness of photovoltaic output will threaten the safety and stable operation of the power grid. Predicting the photovoltaic output power in advance and improving the prediction accuracy can reduce the deviation of grid dispatching, reduce the impact of the uncertainty of photovoltaic power generation changes on the grid, and further improve the security and stability of the power system. Therefore, photovoltaic output forecasting is of grea...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 别朝红刘诗雨汪宁渤陈铉谢海鹏丁坤路亮李津周识远邵冲陟晶
Owner XI AN JIAOTONG UNIV
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