A Risk Analysis Method of Mountain Flood Disaster in Small Watershed Based on Information Diffusion

Abstract

The invention relates to an information diffusion-based small watershed mountain torrent disaster risk analysis method. According to the method, an information diffusion theory is introduced; based onlimited historical mountain torrent data, set-valued processing is performed on samples with monodromy observation values under incomplete information conditions, so that the samples can be transformed into fuzzy set-valued samples with fuzzy uncertainties; a mountain torrent disaster information matrix is established; the calculation of Pearson's III type curve, exceedance probability and confidence is introduced; and therefore, the quantitative assessment of a mountain torrent disaster risk can be carried out rapidly, and a result is closer to actual situations. With the method of the invention adopted, the objectivity and scientificity of the analysis result of the mountain torrent disaster risk can be improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of disaster prevention, and more specifically, to a method for analyzing the risk of mountain torrent disasters in small watersheds based on information diffusion. Background technique [0002] Mountain torrent disasters refer to disasters such as flooding, mudslides, landslides, collapses, etc. caused by floods, debris flows, landslides, collapses, etc. , has the five major characteristics of suddenness, destructiveness, group occurrence, susceptibility, and harmfulness. The terrain of our country generally presents a three-level platform that is high in the west and low in the east, giving birth to many rivers flowing eastward into the sea. About two-thirds of the land It is a mountainous area, so the prevention and control of mountain torrent disasters is an important basic work for flood control and disaster reduction in our country. The risk analysis of mountain torrent disasters is to quantitatively a...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, from the actual situation, first of all, mountain torrent disasters mostly occur in small watersheds, and the accuracy requirements for GIS digital elevation models are relatively high. Secondly, the factors of the underlying surface of the watershed are complex. The deviation in the watershed is relatively large, and finally the calculation requirements are too high, the required information and data are too large, and the small watershed cannot meet the requirements

[0010] In summary, the existing mountain torrent disaster risk analysis methods are mainly aimed at provincial, county or larger watersheds, and the evaluation results are more accurate for areas with measured hydrological data

In the actual evaluation process, on the one hand, the probability distribution of most small watersheds is unknown and the number of samples is small. Due to the limitation of the number and location of hydrological stations and rainfall stations, there are no hydrological data or the hydrological data cannot meet the needs of analysis and research. Requirements and other incomplete information are fuzzy and uncertain, which increases the difficulty of mountain torrent disaster risk analysis; For a complete description of mountain torrent disasters, the probability and statistics method often encounters constraints from the practical level while pursuing accurate probability. Both the fitting curve method and the hydrophysical model method require a large amount of data, and the construction of the index system method and the setting of index weights Both have great subjectivity and uncertainty, and cannot meet the current requirements of refined mountain torrent forecasting in small watersheds. Therefore, the risk analysis method of mountain torrent disasters in small watersheds needs to be further developed and improved.

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