This invention discloses a
lightning potential forecasting method integrating cloud microphysical conditions, belonging to the field of
lightning potential forecasting technology. It involves acquiring
numerical weather prediction data for a target area, constructing a cloud microphysical dynamic-
water vapor coupling index for the target area, and determining the meteorological forecast results for the target area based on the cloud microphysical dynamic-
water vapor coupling index. Based on the meteorological forecast results,
convection parameters for the target area are extracted, and
convection information for the target area is obtained through comprehensive analysis. Based on the
convection information, mixed-phase cloud microphysical parameters for the target area are extracted. Based on the mixed-phase cloud microphysical parameters, collision intensity characterization parameters for the target area are determined. The collision intensity characterization parameters are then corrected for
charge separation capability based on
numerical weather prediction data to obtain an effective collision intensity index for the target area. Based on the effective collision intensity index, the
lightning potential index for the target area is determined, and the lightning potential information for the target area is output, thus improving the accuracy of lightning potential forecasting.