Flight delay causality network building method based on Granger test

A kind of causality and Granger's technology, applied in the field of aviation delay causality network, can solve the problem of no delay causality, etc., to achieve the effect of reducing propagation delay, reducing quantity, and narrowing the spread of delay

Active Publication Date: 2018-09-11
BEIHANG UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

Despite progress in understanding flight delay propagation, there is still no systematic framework for exploring delay causality among airports

Method used

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  • Flight delay causality network building method based on Granger test
  • Flight delay causality network building method based on Granger test
  • Flight delay causality network building method based on Granger test

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Embodiment Construction

[0019] The present invention will be further described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments.

[0020] The present invention explores the relationship between airports by evaluating the Granger causality between the delay time series (Delay time series) for each pair of airports. In order to make the delay time series valid, the time delays of the airports are constructed. For the time series Y of airport i i , divide each airport day into 24 time intervals, and the value of each time interval represents the average delay time d i (t). Define the average hourly delay at airport i as:

[0021]

[0022] Among them, u i (t) represents the departure delay of each flight at airport i during (t,t+1), then c i (t) indicates the number of flights canceled by airport i during (t,t+1), s i (t) indicates the number of flights scheduled to take off at airport i during (t, t+1), h indicates the delay time equivalent to canceling a flight, and the se...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a flight delay causality network building method based on a Granger test, pertaining to the technical field of delay analyses for civil aviation. The method comprises the following steps: firstly, acquiring a delay time sequence of each airport with the set time period according to historical data of flight of airports; then, taking each airport as a node for the network and testing a Granger causality of each pair of airports, when an airport I causes delay of an airport j by the test and establishing a directed edge from a node i to node j; and ultimately, repeating the above processes till selected airports are added to the network and making flight delay analyses by means of the obtained network. Through the established flight delay causality network, the numberof delay dissemination paths is analyzed for some large airports. Therefore, the delay dissemination range is narrowed, thereby effectively resolving a delay problem. The delays disseminated by an overall system are reduced. Therefore, loss caused by many flight delays is lowered.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of civil aviation delay analysis, and specifically relates to constructing a Granger test-based aviation delay causality network, using the network to analyze aviation delays, find delay sources, and mine delay propagation relationships. Background technique [0002] With the intensification of globalization, the world civil aviation industry is growing at a rapid pace. The flight delay problem brought about by the rapid development of the civil aviation industry has become a worldwide challenge. Flight delays have a negative impact on passengers, airlines and the air transportation system. Airlines have suffered great losses, not only to pay for the waste of resources caused by delays, but also to invest more money; flight delays have paralyzed the travel plans of passengers, and due to flight delays, the air transport system faces reduced efficiency, Increased safety risks and other issues, resulting in ...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F17/30G06Q50/30G06N5/02
CPCG06N5/025G06Q50/30
Inventor 曹先彬杜文博安海超张明远
Owner BEIHANG UNIV
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