Oil pipeline quantitative risk evaluation method

Abstract

The invention discloses a quantitative analysis method for leakage of an oil pipeline. Traffic passing factors and communication factors are fused to reflect risks, the above parameters are applied tothe proposed probability model for fitting normal distribution, and the risk of the network oil pipeline is differentially evaluated through the risk probability fitting model in combination with topographic factors according to the mapped communication traffic parameters and traffic volume parameters for representing the risk of the oil pipeline, so that the rapidity and accuracy of risk evaluation are improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of oil and gas pipeline transmission, and is specifically applicable to a method for quantitative risk assessment of oil pipelines. Background technique [0002] Long-distance oil pipeline refers to the pipeline used to transport semi-finished crude oil or refined oil between the storage warehouse in the production area and the user unit. It plays an increasingly important role in the construction of the national economy. With the rapid development of my country's economy and With the substantial improvement of people's living standards, the number of pipeline users and the scale of the pipeline network are constantly increasing. However, the information management technology of oil pipelines in most pipeline companies has not improved accordingly. There may be varying degrees of damage in each case. [0003] In the existing technology, there are various qualitative or quantitative risk assessment methods. However, var...

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Problems solved by technology

Existing research methods take many factors into consideration, but for actual local companies, large-scale evaluation application analysis factors cannot be adapted to small areas, and there is an urgent need for intuitive risk evaluation guidelines, which are simple and fast

At the same time, the existing evaluation methods do not take into account the characteristics of oil pipelines, and the influence of frequent human activities on pipeline factors cannot be well represented. Traditional detection methods focus on the pipeline itself, while ignoring the impact of economic activities on the pipeline. In the evaluation process, terrain factors, traffic factors and population density factors were not introduced. With the development of the times, traffic has increased the scope of human activities, which has caused a certain amount of risk to the laid oil pipeline.

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