Subway shield construction risk and development trend prediction method

Abstract

The invention discloses a subway shield construction risk and development trend prediction method, belongs to the technical field of shield construction, and solves the problem that the prior art comprises the following steps. The method comprises the following steps: A, risks existing in shield construction and faults of a shield tunneling machine being collected, major risk and key fault information being screened out, and the major risk and the key fault information being coded respectively; B, constructing a fault tree of shield construction risk and shield tunneling machine fault; C, constructing a shield construction risk Bayesian network topological graph according to the constructed 'shield construction risk and shield tunneling machine fault' fault tree; D, determining parametersin the Bayesian network topological graph; E, reverse diagnosis reasoning being conducted through the Bayesian network topological graph, and the maximum shield construction risk path being obtained;and F, predicting the shield construction risk according to the maximum path of the shield construction risk.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of shield tunneling, in particular to a method for predicting subway shield construction risk and its development trend. Background technique [0002] With the vigorous development of my country's subway construction, the application of shield tunneling method construction is increasing, but there are many risks and hidden dangers in shield tunneling construction, such as high construction intensity, difficulty in mastering mechanical equipment, and complex and changing construction environment. Risk accidents occur during the construction process. It happens from time to time, causing economic loss, delay in construction period and loss of people's life and property. Therefore, predicting the occurrence trend of risks and realizing real-time early warning of risks has become the primary task of shield construction risk management. [0003] At present, domestic and foreign research on shield tunneling constr...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, for large-scale construction projects such as subway shield construction, due to the many risk factors and various complex correlations between risk factors, the evaluation results of risk factors with blurred boundaries are inaccurate, and the risk There is a lack of in-depth research on the relationship between factors. In addition, there are still some deficiencies and limitations in the existing shield construction risk research:

[0005] The collection and processing of data generated at the accident site is insufficient; the investigation and collection of various shield construction risk data is a prerequisite for the study of shield construction risk management and is an essential basic work. However, due to the daily storage of construction sites Insufficient and inaccurate collection and control of the information and data generated at the accident site, which affects the quality of quantitative analysis of risk factors and the results of qualitative judgments to a certain extent; research on the risks of the shield machine itself Too few, ignoring a large number of construction parameter data and alarm data generated during the operation of the shield machine; there are various complex correlations among the risk factors of subway shield tunneling, but there is currently a lack of in-depth research on the relationship between risk factors Research;

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