Middle and short term hydrological forecasting method and system fusing multivariate information

Abstract

The invention discloses a medium and short term hydrological forecasting method and system fused with multivariate information, and the method comprises the steps: collecting the related information of a whole watershed, extracting the feature information of the whole watershed, selecting a distributed hydrological model according to the feature information of the whole watershed, selecting an ARW model as an atmospheric numerical model, according to the features of a power frame, predicting an atmospheric motion state and a weather phenomenon in a certain period of time in the future; and embedding the established distributed hydrological model into a land surface model of the atmospheric numerical model, so that the atmospheric numerical model and the distributed hydrological model share the same land surface process mechanism, and constructing bidirectional coupling of the numerical weather forecast and the distributed hydrological model. Through the method for eliminating the initial error of the weather forecast numerical model, the weather forecast precision is improved, the watershed small-scale matching application of the gridding quantitative rainfall estimation model is realized, the seamless connection between the weather forecast model and the hydrological forecast model is ensured, and the hydrological forecast precision is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of short-term and medium-term hydrological forecasting, in particular to a method and system for short-term and medium-term hydrological forecasting that integrates multiple information. Background technique [0002] At present, quantitative precipitation prediction is mainly based on numerical weather prediction technology. After about 10 years of development, the GRAPES (Global / Regional Assimilation and Prediction System) model developed by China has gradually formed a mesoscale prediction model (GRAPES_Meso), a global prediction model (GRAPES_Global )Wait. [0003] In the past ten years, the land-atmosphere coupling model has developed into an advanced hydrological forecasting tool. The mesoscale numerical weather prediction model MM5 is used to forecast weather elements, and this drives the hydrological model to build a two-way coupling forecast of the numerical weather prediction model and the hydrologi...

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Problems solved by technology

[0007] The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the above-mentioned technical deficiencies, and propose a short-term and medium-term hydrological forecasting method and system that integrates multivariate information, so as to solve the problem that the existing numerical weather forecasting model has limited rainfall forecasting ability, low reliability, and is not bidirectionally coupled with the hydrological model The problem

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