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Automatically-calibrating rolling forecasting method for flood

An automatic calibration, flooding technology, applied in special data processing applications, instruments, climate change adaptation and other directions, can solve the problems of shortened forecast period, low stability of hydrology and hydrodynamic coupling model, low time efficiency of processing real-time data, etc. The effect of improving the base level and the forecast period

Pending Publication Date: 2022-01-28
POWERCHINA HUADONG ENG COPORATION LTD +1
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] 1) The stability of hydrological and hydrodynamic coupling model is not high
When the hydrodynamic model is used for real-time calculation, it is often prone to instability problems such as divergence during model calculation due to complex river conditions and uneven quality of real-time data. These divergences will lead to model prediction. The accumulation of eventually results in an unusable
The one-dimensional river network model in the traditional forecasting method adopts the unified solution mode of circular and branched mixed river networks, and does not consider the existence of hydraulic structures in the river network, and the method does not consider the presence of dams, bridges, cofferdams, sluices, etc. in the river channel. It is impossible to accurately simulate the impact of hydraulic structures on the water level of the river, which has great limitations in practical engineering applications
[0004] 2) More and more real-time data are not effectively integrated and utilized
In recent years, with the continuous construction of hydrological monitoring stations, a large number of real-time rainfall stations and hydrological stations have been built and operated, and the massive available real-time data has not been effectively integrated and utilized in traditional forecasting methods
[0005] 3) The timeliness of forecast calculation is not enough
The current forecasting methods are based on traditional hydrological models and forecasting methods. When analyzing a large amount of data, effective data fusion technology is often not established, resulting in low time efficiency for processing real-time data, which often delays the efficiency of forecasting and leads to the forecast period. shorten

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  • Automatically-calibrating rolling forecasting method for flood
  • Automatically-calibrating rolling forecasting method for flood
  • Automatically-calibrating rolling forecasting method for flood

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Embodiment Construction

[0046] This embodiment is a flood rolling forecast method for automatic calibration, which specifically includes the following steps:

[0047] Obtain the forecast station determined by the user in the simulation area, and determine the topological relationship between the forecast station and its upstream and downstream stations and river sections according to the spatial topological relationship of the river in the simulation area;

[0048] Extract the measured water level or flow data along the river in the simulation area at the time of simulation calculation, and interpolate the measured water level or flow data along the river according to the spatial topological relationship of the river and the profile stability process line of the river to obtain more accurate initial conditions , and input the interpolated data into the verified rolling flood forecast model for the initial startup calculation of the model;

[0049] Output the forecast water level and flow data of the ...

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Abstract

The invention relates to an automatically-calibrating rolling forecasting method for flood. The method is characterized by comprising the following steps of: acquiring a forecasting site determined by a user in a simulation area, and determining a topological relation between the forecasting site and upstream and downstream sites and a river reach according to a spatial topological relation of a river channel in the simulation area; extracting actually-measured water level or flow data of the along-way river channel in the simulation area at a simulation calculation moment, conducting interpolation on the actually-measured water level or flow data, and inputting the interpolated data into a verified rolling forecasting model for flood; outputting the forecast water level and flow data of the forecasting site according to the input data, the forecasting site and the upstream and downstream topological relation of the forecasting site through the rolling forecast model for flood; and carrying out data assimilation on the forecast water level and flow data by adopting measured data, wherein the rolling forecasting model for flood comprises a one-dimensional non-constant flow numerical model corresponding to the simulation area and an NAM hydrological model coupled with the one-dimensional non-constant flow numerical model. The method is applicable to the flood forecasting field.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to an automatic calibrating flood rolling forecast method. Applicable to the field of flood forecasting. Background technique [0002] At present, the method of using real-time meteorological information data to drive numerical models for hydrological forecasting has been widely used, but most of the hydrological forecasts are only carried out based on traditional hydrological models. When using the model of coupled calculation of hydrology and hydrodynamics for real-time forecasting, the accuracy and timeliness of the forecast are often insufficient due to problems such as calculation stability and data fusion. The river channel model calculation method in the prior art has the following defects: [0003] 1) The stability of the hydrological-hydrodynamic coupling model is not high. When the hydrodynamic model is used for real-time calculation, it is often prone to instability problems such as divergence during model calculatio...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F30/20G06Q50/26G06F111/10
CPCG06F30/20G06Q50/26G06F2111/10Y02A10/40
Inventor 张善亮章兴董杰刘秀成李春雷程开宇林平岳青华富强邬雪松章永鹏白珏莹周雨婷
Owner POWERCHINA HUADONG ENG COPORATION LTD
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