38results about How to "Extended forecast period" patented technology

The invention discloses a coupled numerical meteorological and hydrological aggregate forecasting reservoir scheduling risk decision method comprising the steps that the numerical meteorological and hydrological aggregate forecasting model of the reservoir basin is established, and the flood process of the basin is forecasted in a rolling way; the uncertainty of hydrological aggregate forecastingis assessed by using the Bayes model averaging method, the Bayes posteriori probability is reckoned and the probability of the flood scene in the future is updated in real time; a flood scene tree isconstructed by using the method based on the probability distance on the basis of the hydrological aggregate forecasting result and branch cutting of the flood scene tree is performed; and a reservoiroptimal scheduling random change constrained programming model is established, the optimal scheduling decision of the reservoir is solved by using the optimization method and the decision risk is assessed. With application of the method, the forecast period of hydrological forecasting can be effectively extended and the forecast precision can be enhanced, and the uncertainty between modes and different data assimilation schemes is comprehensively considered; and the method is suitable for medium-and-short-term real-time reservoir scheduling and can significantly enhance the reliability of thereservoir scheduling decision.

The invention provides a land-atmosphere coupling-based method and a system for flood forecast of minor watersheds, which are used for solving the problem of low accuracy for the flood forecast of the minor watersheds. The method comprises the following steps: setting model parameters; inputting initial data; judging a runoff-generation manner through analyzing the initial data, calculating surface runoff if the runoff-generating manner is infiltration excess runoff, and taking the surface runoff as simulation runoff; calculating the infiltration amount of soil if the runoff-generating manner is saturation excess runoff, and calculating base runoff and subsurface runoff by using the soil infiltration amount; calculating to obtain the simulation runoff according to the base runoff and the subsurface runoff when the soil is unsaturated; and further calculating the surface runoff and calculating to obtain the simulation runoff according to the base runoff, the subsurface runoff and the surface runoff when the soil is saturated. The land-atmosphere coupling-based method and the system provided by the invention are suitable for calculating the simulation runoff of the minor watersheds, and the calculating result is more accurate through the combination of theory and practice, thus the land-atmosphere coupling-based method and the system are suitable for short-term or ultra-short-term runoff forecast and have high forecast accuracy.

The invention relates to a novel distributed Hebei model construction method and application thereof. The novel distributed Hebei model construction method comprises the following steps that firstly, drainage basin generalization is carried out; secondly, grids serve as study units, a Hebei model is used for establishing a grid runoff producing module; thirdly, a lag-and-route method and a Muskingum method are used for establishing grid-by-grid distributed confluence modules. The mature Hebei model is used for conducting grid runoff producing calculation, then, grid-by-grid confluence calculation is carried out, the situation that the space distribution of factors such as an underlying surface is uneven is fully considered in the model, the model can be coupled with an atmospheric mode, the forecast accuracy of storm flood is improved, the meeting period is prolonged, and the novel distributed Hebei model construction method has important significance for storm flood forecasting, a drainage basin water circulation mechanism, water resource planning, unified water resource management scheduling in the northern semiarid and semihumid regions in China.

The invention relates to an ensemble forecast flood forecasting method for improving forecast rainfall based on data assimilation. The ensemble forecast flood forecasting method comprises the following steps: step 1, data preparation; step 2, rainfall ensemble forecast based on the data assimilation; step 3, rainfall data post-processing; step 4, ensemble flood forecast; step 5, flood forecast result publishing and evaluation. The ensemble flood forecasting method provided by the invention has the benefits that not only is the forecast period of the flood forecast prolonged, but also the forecast accuracy of the flood forecast is improved; compared with traditional flood forecast performed by selecting through fall, a system selects a data assimilation technology to correct a numerical atmosphere mode, so that the high-resolution accurate forecast rainfall is obtained in advance and is taken as an input to a hydrological model for the flood forecast; in addition, in order to reduce the forecast uncertainty, an idea of the ensemble forecast is introduced for the rainfall forecast and the flood forecast.

This invention provides decision makers with an auxiliary system for flood defense dispatching decision serving as a basis of decision making. The auxiliary system for flood defense dispatching decision comprises a basic module database used for storing historical flood hydrograph and relevant rainfall amount as well as rainfall duration of each historical flood hydrograph; a basic database used to store units parameters; a flood forecasting module to forecast flood by scaling the adopted historical flood hydrograph in according with the total rainfall amount and rainfall duration predicted by weather forecast; a flood dispatching module used to set present parameters of flood releasing units and flood releasing facilities to simulate flood defense dispatching accordingly as well as in according with the total rainfall amount and rainfall duration predicted by weather forecast and the historical flood hydrograph. The auxiliary system for flood defense dispatching decision applicates to a technology field of computer-based flood defense dispatching.

The invention provides a feature extraction hydrological forecasting method based on deep learning, and belongs to the field of water resource efficient utilization and hydrological forecasting. The method comprises the following steps: firstly, obtaining a watershed hydrological forecasting characteristic factor set by utilizing watershed historical information; secondly, training the characteristic factor set by utilizing a data mining algorithm, and obtaining a plurality of groups of session flood process sets with similar magnitudes and process forms under the action of different factors;then, carrying out parameter calibration of all models and methods in traditional hydrological forecasting based on a deep learning algorithm, forming a model library and a method library matched withthe models, the methods and parameter schemes, and finally completing hydrological forecasting calculation in combination with clustering analysis. Compared with an existing method, the method has the advantages that the defects that a traditional hydrological forecasting method is low in forecasting precision, short in effective forecasting period and the like are effectively overcome, the forecasting precision can be obviously improved and the forecasting period can be obviously prolonged when hydrological forecasting is carried out, good applicability and feasibility are achieved, and an effective technical method is provided for basin hydrological forecasting.

The invention discloses a flood forecasting method based on synthetic flow and shape fitting and relates to the technical field of hydrological simulation and forecasting. The method comprises the steps that a correlation between target cross section flow and upstream cross section flow is inquired and forecasted; distributed hydrological model modeling is conducted on forecasting drainage basin,and obtained runoff generation and confluence parameters of each calculation unit in a distributed hydrological model are calibrated; according to flood peak data of each time and flood volume data ofeach time of a forecasting target cross section, the corresponding relation of the flood peak and the flood volume is fit; corresponding exponential-type water subsiding curve parameters in the actual water subsiding process are inquired; a flow forecasting result of the forecasting target cross section in the confluence forecast period is obtained through flow synthesis; the forecasting flood volume and the forecasting flood peak of the forecasting target cross section in the flood on the spot are acquired; the corresponding flow forecasting result which meets a preset requirement is used asa final result of flood forecasting of each time. According to the flood forecasting method, the forecast period of flood forecasting is prolonged, so that the forecasting result is more reasonable and precise.

The invention relates to the technical field of meteorological and hydrological forecasting and meteorological information processing, in particular to a regional atmospheric and hydrological coupling early warning decision-making system. The system comprises a regional data acquisition module for acquiring the regional data in real time; an artificial intelligence module which is used for obtaining a rainfall analysis model in the region; a rainfall forecast analysis module which is used for obtaining the rainfall amount and the rainfall path forecast in the region; a correction module which is used for obtaining the corrected precipitation amount and precipitation path forecast and storing the corrected precipitation amount and precipitation path forecast in a database; a hydrological data acquisition module which is used for acquiring the surface runoff data; a hydrological forecasting module which is used for providing water level forecasting, early warning and pre-discharging decisions in the region; a response demonstration module which is used for simulating the rainfall runoff trend in the region in several hours in the future and the convergence of rainfall to a low position on the ground so as to realize the runoff early warning and prediction; and an early-warning decision-making module which is used for determining an early-warning decision-making scheme according to a preset runoff monitoring point threshold value.

The invention relates to a medium and long term mountain torrent disaster early warning pre-judgment method. The method comprises the steps of mountain torrent early warning index calculation, basin rain type analysis, medium and long term rainfall prediction based on a neural network, mountain torrent disaster early warning pre-judgment and the like. Mountain torrent early warning is mainly carried out in a short duration in the past. According to the method, large-scale atmospheric data changes are considered, and the medium and long-term rainfall is forecasted by adopting a neural network method, so that the mountain torrent disaster occurrence trend is pre-judged, the forecast period can be greatly prolonged, good technical support is provided for mountain torrent disaster prevention and control, and meanwhile, the method has great significance in infrastructure construction and macroscopic decision making.

The invention provides a predictor identification method of a medium-long-term runoff and a medium-long-term runoff predicting method. The predictor identification method comprises: step one, standardization processing is carried out; step two, a forecast period is set, a standardized runoff sequence Q and a climatic factor set sequence F that include a series of different lag phases form a candidate predictor set X and a corresponding standardized runoff sequence Q is used as a set Y in Lasso regression; step three, a parameter lambda is given, crossed verification is carried out and a prediction set Y' is calculated, the prediction set Y' is compared with the set Y to obtain a first evaluation index of the parameter lambda; step four, M different parameters lambda are selected, first evaluation indexes are normalized, and the results are added and then scoring is carried out; step five, statistics of total scores of the parameters lambda is carried out, and the parameter lambda withthe highest total score is selected as an optimal parameter; and step six, on the basis of the optimal parameter, regression coefficients of all climate factors obtained at the step three are obtained, wherein the climate factor corresponding to the non-zero regression coefficient is identified to be a predictor.

The invention discloses a reservoir flood limit water level dynamic control risk analysis method coupled with meteorological and hydrological uncertainty, and the method comprises the following steps:calculating a deterministic flood limit water level dynamic control domain based on a two-stage prediction pre-discharge method; collecting and sorting data information, and obtaining risk source sample series data for distribution fitting; deducing a distribution density function of the total water storage surcharge, and calculating distribution parameters; defining and calculating a surcharge risk, and performing risk assessment and decision making. According to the reservoir flood limit water level dynamic control risk analysis model coupled with meteorological-hydrological uncertainty, numerical weather forecast information is applied to flood resource utilization in the flood season, and the flood resource utilization potential is improved; a forecasting pre-discharge method risk analysis model is established, risk decision information guidance is provided for a decision maker in real-time scheduling, and a reasonable and feasible flood resource utilization strategy is formulated.

The invention discloses a'stream '-'riverway'-'estuary 'distributed flood process simulation method suitable for a coastal region, which comprises the following steps of: firstly, collecting basic information data of a system, and generalizing a complex watershed system; then establishing a multi-source heterogeneous data three-dimensional monitoring system for rainstorm flood of the watershed, and carrying out multi-source data fusion; secondly, a high-resolution stream-river channel-estuary distributed flood simulation model considering water engineering such as barrages and reservoirs in the drainage basin at the same time is constructed; and finally, completing model calibration and verification based on multi-source fusion data, and carrying out dynamic real-time simulation on a key section and an easily waterlogged region. By adopting the method, distributed flood simulation from a stream to an estuary can be realized, the effectiveness, scientificity and calculation precision of coastal region flood forecasting are expected to be improved, and flood simulation and prediction theories and methods are perfected.

The invention relates to the technical field of runoff forecasting, in particular to a runoff forecasting system based on satellite microwave observation data, which comprises a satellite data collection module used for collecting satellite data in real time; an artificial intelligence module is used for establishing a database and obtaining a rainfall analysis model; a rainfall forecast analysis module is used for obtaining rainfall amount and rainfall path forecast; a correction module is used for obtaining the corrected precipitation amount and precipitation path forecast and storing the corrected precipitation amount and precipitation path forecast in a database; a hydrological data collection module is used for collecting surface runoff data; a hydrological forecasting module is used for simulating a hydrological process under a complex terrain condition based on an atmospheric hydrological coupling mode and providing water level forecasting, early warning and pre-discharging decisions in the region; a response demonstration module is used for simulating a rainfall runoff trend in a few hours in the future and convergence of rainfall to a low position on the ground according to the obtained corrected rainfall amount and rainfall path forecast in combination with surface runoff data so as to realize runoff prediction.

The invention relates to a cascade reservoir group two-stage water abandoning risk assessment method based on coupling forecasting. The method comprises the following steps: carrying out multi-scenario forecast on reservoir incoming water in a forecast period; establishing a cascade reservoir two-stage water abandoning risk assessment model, assessing the water abandoning risks of two stages within and outside a forecast period of the cascade reservoir, and coupling to obtain a cascade reservoir two-stage total water abandoning risk; carrying out rationality verification on the cascade reservoir two-stage water abandoning risk assessment model; and updating the forecast information in the forecast period in a rolling manner to obtain a water abandoning risk assessment result of the whole scheduling period. According to the method, quantitative calculation is carried out on the water abandoning risks inside and outside the prediction period, the total water abandoning risk of the two stages is obtained through coupling, and the water abandoning risk of the cascade reservoir group is reasonably evaluated; according to the method, the water abandoning risk outside the prediction period is considered, the accuracy of the calculated water abandoning risk is better, and the actual scheduling risk of the cascade reservoir is better met.

The invention provides a periodic time transaction volume prediction method and device. The method comprises the steps of obtaining first time sequence data corresponding to a to-be-predicted moment according to historical transaction data; wherein each first sample data in the first time sequence data has the same trading volume date attribute; obtaining a transaction volume reference value at the to-be-predicted moment according to the first time sequence data; obtaining a transaction volume prediction value at the to-be-predicted moment according to the transaction volume difference value and the transaction volume reference value; wherein the transaction volume difference value is obtained in advance according to the historical transaction data. The device is used for executing the method. Accuracy of transaction volume prediction is improved.

The invention discloses a distributed unit line flood forecasting method, which comprises the following steps of: 1, collecting hydrological data in a whole watershed, and dividing the whole watershedinto a plurality of single small watersheds; 2, respectively calculating the rising duration and the unit calculation period length of the unit line of each single small watershed; 3, calculating thenumber of pre-peak time periods and the number of post-peak time periods of the initial unit line; 4, calculating an initial unit line distribution proportion and a time segment numerical value of each time segment; 5, calculating a deformation tool line and K groups of unit lines; 6, calculating the initial lag time of each single small watershed; 7, calculating a line number corresponding to each single small watershed, and selecting a corresponding runoff production unit line according to the line number; and step 8, establishing an initial basin flood forecasting model, calculating runoffproduction results, and accumulating the runoff production results to obtain a forecasting result. The method has the advantages of few model parameters, convenience in calculation and high fitting degree.

The invention discloses a reservoir flood season operation water level dynamic control method and system based on a typhoon path, and the method comprises the steps: predicting the path length of a typhoon center and a reservoir through calculating the typhoon path, and predicting the time for the typhoon center to reach the reservoir according to the path length and the typhoon operation speed; according to the relation between the typhoon distance and the rainfall intensity, the pre-drainage time duration of the reservoir is predicted; solving the maximum operating water level of the reservoir, and dynamically determining the maximum operating water level of the reservoir according to the predicted period length and the pre-discharge capacity; and finally, dynamically controlling the water level of the reservoir according to the dynamically determined highest operating water level of the reservoir. According to the method, typhoon information is considered, the prediction period of dynamic control of the running water level in the flood season is prolonged, the calculation result is closer to the actual reservoir dispatching, and the reservoir flood resources are utilized to the maximum extent.

The invention relates to an automatically-calibrating rolling forecasting method for flood. The method is characterized by comprising the following steps of: acquiring a forecasting site determined by a user in a simulation area, and determining a topological relation between the forecasting site and upstream and downstream sites and a river reach according to a spatial topological relation of a river channel in the simulation area; extracting actually-measured water level or flow data of the along-way river channel in the simulation area at a simulation calculation moment, conducting interpolation on the actually-measured water level or flow data, and inputting the interpolated data into a verified rolling forecasting model for flood; outputting the forecast water level and flow data of the forecasting site according to the input data, the forecasting site and the upstream and downstream topological relation of the forecasting site through the rolling forecast model for flood; and carrying out data assimilation on the forecast water level and flow data by adopting measured data, wherein the rolling forecasting model for flood comprises a one-dimensional non-constant flow numerical model corresponding to the simulation area and an NAM hydrological model coupled with the one-dimensional non-constant flow numerical model. The method is applicable to the flood forecasting field.

The invention provides a medium and long term runoff prediction method based on numerical rainfall forecast, which is a product based on numerical rainfall forecast of the European mid-term weather forecast center in the future six months, is fused with a short term runoff forecast model, and greatly increases the forecast period of runoff forecast and the forecast precision of runoff forecast.