Cascade reservoir group two-stage water abandoning risk assessment method based on coupling forecasting

Abstract

The invention relates to a cascade reservoir group two-stage water abandoning risk assessment method based on coupling forecasting. The method comprises the following steps: carrying out multi-scenario forecast on reservoir incoming water in a forecast period; establishing a cascade reservoir two-stage water abandoning risk assessment model, assessing the water abandoning risks of two stages within and outside a forecast period of the cascade reservoir, and coupling to obtain a cascade reservoir two-stage total water abandoning risk; carrying out rationality verification on the cascade reservoir two-stage water abandoning risk assessment model; and updating the forecast information in the forecast period in a rolling manner to obtain a water abandoning risk assessment result of the whole scheduling period. According to the method, quantitative calculation is carried out on the water abandoning risks inside and outside the prediction period, the total water abandoning risk of the two stages is obtained through coupling, and the water abandoning risk of the cascade reservoir group is reasonably evaluated; according to the method, the water abandoning risk outside the prediction period is considered, the accuracy of the calculated water abandoning risk is better, and the actual scheduling risk of the cascade reservoir is better met.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of reservoir scheduling risk management, and in particular relates to a two-stage water abandonment risk assessment method for cascade reservoir groups with coupled forecasting. Background technique [0002] Reservoir water abandonment risk events have always been paid attention to. With climate change and human activities, floods are becoming more and more frequent. However, under the existing reservoir regulation capacity, there is an inevitable risk of water abandonment, especially for reservoirs with poor regulation capacity. The risk of water abandonment is particularly prominent. When the inflow of water is large in the foreseeable period, the cascade reservoirs face the risk of water abandonment, and the reservoirs reduce the risk of water abandonment by storing water. However, when the external water is also large in the foreseeable period, the cascade reservoirs will face a more serious risk of water abandon...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to address the above problems, to provide a two-stage water abandonment risk assessment method for cascade reservoirs with coupled forecasting, to quantitatively calculate the water abandonment risk within the forecast period, and to consider the water abandonment risk outside the forecast period and the water inflow situation within the forecast period The correlation of the correlation, coupling to get the total water abandonment risk in the foreseeable period and outside the two stages, so that the prediction period of the water abandonment risk prediction of the cascade reservoir is longer, and avoid the problem of low accuracy of the prediction of the water abandonment risk outside the foreseeable period

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