Predictor identification method of medium-long-term runoff and medium-long-term runoff predicting method

Abstract

The invention provides a predictor identification method of a medium-long-term runoff and a medium-long-term runoff predicting method. The predictor identification method comprises: step one, standardization processing is carried out; step two, a forecast period is set, a standardized runoff sequence Q and a climatic factor set sequence F that include a series of different lag phases form a candidate predictor set X and a corresponding standardized runoff sequence Q is used as a set Y in Lasso regression; step three, a parameter lambda is given, crossed verification is carried out and a prediction set Y' is calculated, the prediction set Y' is compared with the set Y to obtain a first evaluation index of the parameter lambda; step four, M different parameters lambda are selected, first evaluation indexes are normalized, and the results are added and then scoring is carried out; step five, statistics of total scores of the parameters lambda is carried out, and the parameter lambda withthe highest total score is selected as an optimal parameter; and step six, on the basis of the optimal parameter, regression coefficients of all climate factors obtained at the step three are obtained, wherein the climate factor corresponding to the non-zero regression coefficient is identified to be a predictor.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of medium and long-term hydrological forecasting, and specifically, the present invention relates to a method for identifying medium- and long-term runoff predictors and a method for predicting medium- and long-term runoff. Background technique [0002] Medium and long-term hydrological forecast refers to the hydrological forecast with a forecast period between 3 days and 1 year, and the forecast period exceeds the confluence time of the basin. The forecast variables include water level, runoff, rainfall, etc. Since runoff is directly related to reservoir dispatching, mid- and long-term runoff forecasting is the most common and most concerned, and plays an important role in reservoir dispatching decision-making fields such as flood control and drought relief, reservoir power generation planning, and comprehensive water resources management. And, generally speaking, the longer the forecast period of m...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, there are many climatic factors, and considering that the impact of climatic factors on runoff has a lag, there are more time series that can be used as alternative predictors. If no selection is made, beneficial predictors cannot be obtained, and most current forecasts Part of the predictors are determined by prior knowledge, and there is no stable method for selecting appropriate mid- and long-term runoff predictors as input to the model

[0006] Therefore, at this stage, the identification method of predictors for medium and long-term runoff forecasting needs to be improved and determined.

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