The invention discloses a pavement
performance prediction method for a rural simple pavement, and the method comprises the steps: data
standardization: constructing an original matrix based on a
disease evaluation value, and carrying out the
standardization; carrying out formalized quantitative analysis, collecting
disease, climate and traffic data, calculating weights and
road surface damage condition indexes through a dynamic weight function, and carrying out multi-level summarization; constructing a rural highway use performance
evaluation system, and performing PQI evaluation based on sampling data;
feature selection, systematic analysis of
disease types, and screening of main diseases through optimal subset regression,
LASSO regression and
random forest; index entropy and weight are calculated, disease entropy is quantified and standardized, and entropy weight is calculated based on information utility value. According to the method, the problems that in the prior art, rural simple paving materials lack systematic research, maintenance intervention influences are ignored, disease
weight distribution is not scientific, and classification depends on artificial experience, so that model generalization is poor are solved, and the scientificity and accuracy of rural road maintenance are improved.