The invention discloses a mosquito-borne infectious
disease epidemic situation prediction method and
system based on a
gradient boosting tree. The mosquito-borne infectious
disease epidemic situationprediction method based on a
gradient boosting tree includes the steps: widely collecting various factor data influencing the mosquito-borne infectious
disease; cleaning the data influencing the mosquito-borne infectious disease so as to perform importance ordering on the factors influencing the mosquito-borne infectious disease, on the basis of the
gradient boosting tree; according to the selected important factors influencing the mosquito-borne infectious disease, establishing a mosquito-borne infectious disease epidemic situation prediction model based on Poisson regression; by means of theselected factor and the correlation coefficients of the mosquito-borne infectious disease, initializing the prediction model, and then determining the mosquito-borne infectious disease prediction
model parameters by means of S fold cross-validation; and by means of a epidemic situation hot spot
graph based on geographical information and an epidemic situation
outbreak graph based on a time axis,visually displaying the
model prediction result. The mosquito-borne infectious disease epidemic situation prediction method and
system based on a gradient boosting tree apply the gradient boosting tree and other
machine learning methods to the field of mosquito-borne infectious disease epidemic situation prediction, can improve the mosquito-borne infectious disease epidemic situation prediction accuracy, can assist
disease control staff to predict the mosquito-borne infectious disease epidemic situation in advance, and can timely take the corresponding measures to control large scale outbreakof the infectious disease.