The invention relates to the technical field of
heat load prediction, and discloses a
heat supply system load prediction method and
system, and the method comprises the steps: collecting multi-source
sensing data in real time, and collecting outdoor meteorological parameters and building structure information; based on building distribution, a
pipe network structure and user load characteristics of a
heat supply area, a multi-stage
heat supply load prediction model is constructed. And constructing a thermal
topological graph model of the heat supply area based on the graph neural network. And periodically collecting parameters of the building-level edge prediction model, the heat exchange
station-level aggregation prediction model and the thermal
topological graph model, performing global aggregation optimization, and updating and optimizing each
edge node model. And obtaining an edge prediction result according to the optimized model, and jointly controlling the heat source output power, the main pump rotating speed and the area
valve opening according to the edge prediction result and the heat
source level scheduling prediction model. According to the method, the depiction capability of the
system on the dynamic load change and the space heat conduction path is improved, and the generalization capability of model updating and the real-time responsiveness of edge deployment are ensured.