Mosquito-borne infectious disease epidemic situation prediction method and system based on gradient boosting tree

Abstract

The invention discloses a mosquito-borne infectious disease epidemic situation prediction method and system based on a gradient boosting tree. The mosquito-borne infectious disease epidemic situationprediction method based on a gradient boosting tree includes the steps: widely collecting various factor data influencing the mosquito-borne infectious disease; cleaning the data influencing the mosquito-borne infectious disease so as to perform importance ordering on the factors influencing the mosquito-borne infectious disease, on the basis of the gradient boosting tree; according to the selected important factors influencing the mosquito-borne infectious disease, establishing a mosquito-borne infectious disease epidemic situation prediction model based on Poisson regression; by means of theselected factor and the correlation coefficients of the mosquito-borne infectious disease, initializing the prediction model, and then determining the mosquito-borne infectious disease prediction model parameters by means of S fold cross-validation; and by means of a epidemic situation hot spot graph based on geographical information and an epidemic situation outbreak graph based on a time axis,visually displaying the model prediction result. The mosquito-borne infectious disease epidemic situation prediction method and system based on a gradient boosting tree apply the gradient boosting tree and other machine learning methods to the field of mosquito-borne infectious disease epidemic situation prediction, can improve the mosquito-borne infectious disease epidemic situation prediction accuracy, can assist disease control staff to predict the mosquito-borne infectious disease epidemic situation in advance, and can timely take the corresponding measures to control large scale outbreakof the infectious disease.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method and system for predicting the epidemic situation of mosquito-borne infectious diseases based on gradient lifting trees, belonging to the field of computer applications. Background technique [0002] With the warming of the global climate, the acceleration of urbanization, the frequent trade exchanges between countries in the world, the fast and convenient international transportation, and the continuous deterioration of the ecological environment, the incidence of mosquito-borne infectious diseases in the world is on the rise. The epidemic areas of infectious diseases continue to expand, and the frequency of epidemics continues to increase. The disease that was originally limited to a certain region or country breaks through the boundaries of the country, causing widespread spread and prevalence in the world. The mosquito-borne infectious diseases that have been or are circulating have brought great harm to people all ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, these models consider few factors, most of which are based on meteorological factors, ignoring many factors such as geography and humanities

At the same time, the existing research has not carried out sufficient data cleaning and feature selection.

There are many missing, repeated, and irregular situations in the original data, and direct modeling will have a great impact on the prediction accuracy of the model

On the other hand, some factors have little impact on infectious diseases, while others have a greater impact on them. When there are many factors, only relying on experience and existing research to select factors cannot effectively select appropriate factors to establish mosquito vector density prediction. Model

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