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Medium and long term mountain torrent disaster early-warning and pre-judging method

A medium-to-long-term, mountain torrent technology, applied in the field of medium-to-long-term mountain torrent disaster early warning and prediction, can solve the problems of unfavorable disaster response, short forecast period, short duration, etc.

Active Publication Date: 2020-01-31
ZHEJIANG INST OF HYDRAULICS & ESTUARY
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Problems solved by technology

However, the current flash flood warning technology is mainly based on short duration, and the foreseeable period is short. In small watersheds with extremely short confluence time, it is impossible to meet the requirements of timely transfer, which is not conducive to disaster response.

Method used

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  • Medium and long term mountain torrent disaster early-warning and pre-judging method
  • Medium and long term mountain torrent disaster early-warning and pre-judging method
  • Medium and long term mountain torrent disaster early-warning and pre-judging method

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Embodiment Construction

[0043] In order to enable those skilled in the art to better understand the technical solutions in this application, the preferred embodiments of the present invention will be described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings:

[0044] figure 1 A schematic diagram of the method for pre-warning and predicting mid-to-long-term mountain torrent disasters of the present invention is given. In this embodiment, the Shiqianxi small watershed in Sizhoutou Town, Xiangshan County, Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province is used as the target of mountain torrent prevention. Qianxi has a control section DM.

[0045] 1. Data collection and analysis. Collect and analyze the water system map and station distribution map of the Zhiqianxi small watershed, and collect the daily rainfall data of the Dongxi Rainfall Station (41 years from 1977 to 2017) and the corresponding daily weather data of the Xiangshan Weather Station according to the on-site conditions of the watershed and...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a medium and long term mountain torrent disaster early warning pre-judgment method. The method comprises the steps of mountain torrent early warning index calculation, basin rain type analysis, medium and long term rainfall prediction based on a neural network, mountain torrent disaster early warning pre-judgment and the like. Mountain torrent early warning is mainly carried out in a short duration in the past. According to the method, large-scale atmospheric data changes are considered, and the medium and long-term rainfall is forecasted by adopting a neural network method, so that the mountain torrent disaster occurrence trend is pre-judged, the forecast period can be greatly prolonged, good technical support is provided for mountain torrent disaster prevention and control, and meanwhile, the method has great significance in infrastructure construction and macroscopic decision making.

Description

Technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of disaster early warning, and in particular to a method for early warning and predicting mid-to-long-term mountain torrent disasters. Background technique [0002] Mountain torrents are sudden surges caused by heavy rainfall in small and medium river basins in hilly areas. They have the characteristics of short duration, concentrated water volume, rapid disasters, and strong erosion and destructive power, which cause serious harm to the national economy and people's lives and property. Mountain torrents are the main cause of deaths caused by floods in China: In the 1990s, 1,900-3,700 people died from flash floods in the country each year, accounting for 62% to 69% of the death toll from floods; from 2000 to 2010, mountain floods The death toll from disasters averages 1079 people per year, accounting for 65% to 92% of the death toll from flood disasters (of which 92% in 2010, and 3887 people were missing); from 2...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F17/18G06N3/04G06N3/08
CPCG06F17/18G06N3/084G06N3/045Y02A10/40
Inventor 施征陈焕宝胡琳琳
Owner ZHEJIANG INST OF HYDRAULICS & ESTUARY
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