Ensemble forecast flood forecasting method for improving forecast rainfall based on data assimilation

Abstract

The invention relates to an ensemble forecast flood forecasting method for improving forecast rainfall based on data assimilation. The ensemble forecast flood forecasting method comprises the following steps: step 1, data preparation; step 2, rainfall ensemble forecast based on the data assimilation; step 3, rainfall data post-processing; step 4, ensemble flood forecast; step 5, flood forecast result publishing and evaluation. The ensemble flood forecasting method provided by the invention has the benefits that not only is the forecast period of the flood forecast prolonged, but also the forecast accuracy of the flood forecast is improved; compared with traditional flood forecast performed by selecting through fall, a system selects a data assimilation technology to correct a numerical atmosphere mode, so that the high-resolution accurate forecast rainfall is obtained in advance and is taken as an input to a hydrological model for the flood forecast; in addition, in order to reduce the forecast uncertainty, an idea of the ensemble forecast is introduced for the rainfall forecast and the flood forecast.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to an ensemble flood forecasting method based on data assimilation to improve rainfall forecasting, belongs to the field of real-time flood forecasting, and is mainly used for flood forecasting and early warning by water conservancy departments. Background technique [0002] For a long time, my country's flood disasters have occurred frequently, and economic and social development and the safety of people's lives and property have been seriously threatened. Flood forecasting plays an important role in dealing with flood disasters, and extending the forecast period and improving forecast accuracy are the keys. However, the traditional flood forecast is based on "falling rain", and the forecast period is very limited. Especially for small and medium-sized river basins with a short confluence time, the forecast is often not timely, which is the weak link of my country's current flood control work. An effective means to prolong the f...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, due to the large number of physical parameterization schemes in the numerical atmospheric model, the rainfall forecast has great uncertainty. In addition, due to certain errors in the initial field and lateral boundary conditions driving the numerical atmospheric model, the forecast obtained by the numerical atmospheric model is directly used rain quality is poor

However, the hy

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