Method of advanced flood early-warning and forecasting

A flood and advanced technology, which is applied in the field of flood early warning and forecasting, can solve the problems of not being able to predict the development of storms and floods, and achieve the effect of long-term forecasting

Active Publication Date: 2018-08-17
HOHAI UNIV
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

At present, there is no more accurate and rapid method of early warning and forecasting of floods, so it is not possible to predict the development of future storms and floods based on flood information

Method used

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  • Method of advanced flood early-warning and forecasting
  • Method of advanced flood early-warning and forecasting

Examples

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Comparison scheme
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Embodiment

[0040] Example: There are a total of 85 historical rainstorm and flood process data from a certain hydrological observation station from 1981 to 2007. According to the method provided by the present invention, with No. 20040811 storm flood as real-time storm flood forecast, the process is as follows:

[0041] (1) Taking the rainfall process of the station No. 20040811 in the first 5 periods as the research object, compared with the floods in history, looking for floods similar to it, and the similarity index values ​​of the top-ranking comprehensive index of storm similarity are shown in the table 1. In the end, it was found that the rainfall processes of 19960810 and 20040811 have a high degree of similarity in the first five periods. The rainfall process is as follows: figure 2 As shown, the process of the measured flood and the predicted flood is as follows: image 3 shown.

[0042] Table 1 Analysis results of the similarity index of No. 20040811 rainstorm (the first fi...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a method of advanced flood early-warning and forecasting. According to a rainstorm similarity comprehensive-measurement method based on a total-quantity similarity index, a process similarity index, an earth-mover distance index and a rainstorm distribution similarity index, a similar rainstorm and a typical flood process corresponding thereto are found in historical rainstorms, then the typical flood process is scaled according to a rainstorm quantity ratio, and thus advanced flood early-warning and forecasting are realized. According to the method of the invention, aflood process forecasted period by period can be continuously updated with increasing of rainstorm flood process information, forecast precision shows gradual rising, thus a longer forecast period isobtained, and decision support can be provided for reservoir dispatching.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the intersection field of hydrology and water resources and data mining, and relates to a method for early warning and forecasting of floods. Background technique [0002] With the construction of water conservancy facilities in our country, basic hydrological data are gradually enriched. How to use historical storm and flood data to mine the similarity of storm and flood has always been a hot issue in the study of hydrological similarity. Long-term hydrological observation data contain a large amount of hydrological law information. To study the similarity between current storm floods and historical storm floods, effectively use the development and evolution information of similar storm floods in history, and realize real-time early warning and forecast of floods. A new approach to forecasting. [0003] The storm flood sequence belongs to the time series. At present, some scholars use time series similarity measurement tech...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06F17/18
CPCG06F17/18G06Q10/04G06Q10/063Y02A10/40
Inventor 肖章玲吴亚琪梁忠民李彬权王军胡义明
Owner HOHAI UNIV
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