A Flood Forecasting Method Based on Synthetic Flow and Shape Fitting

Abstract

The invention discloses a flood forecasting method based on synthetic flow and shape fitting and relates to the technical field of hydrological simulation and forecasting. The method comprises the steps that a correlation between target cross section flow and upstream cross section flow is inquired and forecasted; distributed hydrological model modeling is conducted on forecasting drainage basin,and obtained runoff generation and confluence parameters of each calculation unit in a distributed hydrological model are calibrated; according to flood peak data of each time and flood volume data ofeach time of a forecasting target cross section, the corresponding relation of the flood peak and the flood volume is fit; corresponding exponential-type water subsiding curve parameters in the actual water subsiding process are inquired; a flow forecasting result of the forecasting target cross section in the confluence forecast period is obtained through flow synthesis; the forecasting flood volume and the forecasting flood peak of the forecasting target cross section in the flood on the spot are acquired; the corresponding flow forecasting result which meets a preset requirement is used asa final result of flood forecasting of each time. According to the flood forecasting method, the forecast period of flood forecasting is prolonged, so that the forecasting result is more reasonable and precise.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of hydrological simulation and forecasting, in particular to a flood forecasting method based on synthetic flow and shape fitting. Background technique [0002] The flood forecasting model takes the rainfall that has occurred and the predicted rainfall for a certain period of time in the future as input, and uses a series of mathematical equations with parameters to calculate the flow process of the river section. According to different mathematical equations, forecasting models include black-box models that directly describe the relationship between rainfall and runoff through statistical relationships, empirical models that deduce flood processes through certain empirical equations based on other indicators, or hydrological models with complete physical mechanisms. Existing methods have advantages and disadvantages: [0003] 1. The black box model and empirical model are quick to calculate, but it is diff...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] 1. The black box model and empirical model are quick to calculate, but it is difficult to adapt to floods with different characteristics, and it is even more difficult to adapt to the changing climate and underlying surface environment

[0004] 2. Based on the falling rain and forecast rainfall, although the use of hydrological models for flood forecasting can improve the forecast accuracy and extend the forecast period, the data requirements are too high. Under the conditions of insufficient data or the accuracy of the data, the forecast will be distorted Happening

[0005] In summary, the existing flood forecasting methods are too dependent on experience and the error is uncontrollable.

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