Distributed unit line flood forecasting method

A flood forecasting, unit line technology, applied in forecasting, instrumentation, climate change adaptation, etc., can solve problems such as low forecast accuracy, low model fit, and complex parameters

Active Publication Date: 2020-10-30
广东省水文局梅州水文分局
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  • Abstract
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  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

However, the current model not only has complex parameters, but also takes the entire watershed as the object in the calculation process, so there will be a big difference between the calculated model and the actual situation, the fitting degree of the model is low, and the prediction accuracy is low

Method used

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  • Distributed unit line flood forecasting method
  • Distributed unit line flood forecasting method
  • Distributed unit line flood forecasting method

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Embodiment 1

[0179] Such as figure 2 As shown, taking Jianshan in a certain area as the forecast station, the catchment area of ​​the upstream basin of the exit section of Jianshan is 1570Km 2 , The river length is 91Km, there are 27 rainfall stations in total, and the ratio of this area is 0.0012. In this example, all 27 rainfall stations are used as sample rainfall stations. Therefore, the area of ​​a single small watershed is:

[0180]

[0181] The river length of a single small basin is:

[0182]

[0183] The characteristic parameters of a single small watershed are:

[0184]

[0185] The characteristic parameters of the whole basin are:

[0186]

[0187] According to the characteristic parameter θ of a single small watershed Piece Calculate the rise time t P block :

[0188]

[0189] Among them, a=2.8×10 -6 , B=0.151, c=0.3; after calculation, we get t P block =3.54h;

[0190] Since the area of ​​a single small watershed is 58.44Km 2 , By looking up the table, Δt=1h;

[0191] According to the ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a distributed unit line flood forecasting method, which comprises the following steps of: 1, collecting hydrological data in a whole watershed, and dividing the whole watershedinto a plurality of single small watersheds; 2, respectively calculating the rising duration and the unit calculation period length of the unit line of each single small watershed; 3, calculating thenumber of pre-peak time periods and the number of post-peak time periods of the initial unit line; 4, calculating an initial unit line distribution proportion and a time segment numerical value of each time segment; 5, calculating a deformation tool line and K groups of unit lines; 6, calculating the initial lag time of each single small watershed; 7, calculating a line number corresponding to each single small watershed, and selecting a corresponding runoff production unit line according to the line number; and step 8, establishing an initial basin flood forecasting model, calculating runoffproduction results, and accumulating the runoff production results to obtain a forecasting result. The method has the advantages of few model parameters, convenience in calculation and high fitting degree.

Description

Technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of mountain torrent disaster forecasting, in particular to a distributed unit line flood forecasting method. Background technique [0002] Mountain torrents are very common in our country, and flash floods can cause major threats to people’s lives and property. Therefore, it is necessary to establish monitoring, communication and forecasting mechanisms in key areas for prevention and control of mountain torrents, and to forecast mountain torrents in a timely manner, so as to proceed in advance. Preventive work will ensure the safety of people’s lives and property and reduce losses caused by mountain torrents. At present, different empirical or mathematical models have been developed and established for different geographical conditions to simulate and predict the formation and evolution of mountain torrents, and then determine the scope and scale of the impact of mountain torrents. Common early warning methods in...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06F16/2458G06Q50/26
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/26G06F16/2462Y02A10/40
Inventor 江平罗东高玉丹张洪清
Owner 广东省水文局梅州水文分局
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