Hydrological model comprehensive uncertainty analysis method based on Copula function

A hydrological model, uncertainty technology, applied in electrical digital data processing, special data processing applications, instruments, etc., to achieve the effect of organic coupling

Active Publication Date: 2016-07-27
WUHAN UNIV
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At present, there is no literature that introduces the Copula functio

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  • Hydrological model comprehensive uncertainty analysis method based on Copula function
  • Hydrological model comprehensive uncertainty analysis method based on Copula function
  • Hydrological model comprehensive uncertainty analysis method based on Copula function

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Embodiment Construction

[0033] The present invention will be further described below by means of embodiments and in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0034] Such as Figure 1-Figure 7 As shown, a hydrological model comprehensive uncertainty analysis method based on the Copula function collects the measured rainfall, evaporation and flow data of the watershed, establishes a hydrological model to simulate the discharge process of the watershed outlet section, and determines the marginal probability distribution of the measured flow and the simulated flow Based on the function, the Copula function is used to construct the joint probability distribution function of the measured flow rate and the simulated flow rate, and the median and uncertainty interval of the measured flow rate can be obtained by solving the conditional probability distribution function of the measured flow rate when the simulated flow rate is given. figure 1 It is the calculation flowchart of the present embodiment, and i...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a hydrological model comprehensive uncertainty analysis method based on a Copula function. The method comprises the following steps: (1) collecting data information of a water basin; (2) establishing a hydrological model to simulate a water basin outlet section flow process; (3) determining a marginal probability distribution function of actually measured flow and simulation flow; (4) using the Copula function to construct an united probability distribution function of the actually measured flow and the simulation flow; (5) solving a condition probability distribution function of the actually measured flow while the simulation flow is given; (6) acquiring median of the actually measured flow and an uncertainty interval. Through the adoption of the method disclosed by the invention, the uncertainties of the model parameter and the model structure can be more comprehensively considered at the same time so as to obtain the comprehensive uncertainty of the hydrological model. The method disclosed by the invention is independent from a certainty hydrological model, and can be synergistically integrated with the certainty hydrological model with any complexity without adding any assumption on the model, and a universal theoretical frame is provided for the analysis of the comprehensive uncertainty of the hydrological model.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a watershed hydrological model, in particular to a comprehensive uncertainty analysis method for a hydrological model based on a Copula function. Background technique [0002] The hydrological model of a watershed refers to a mathematical model constructed by generalizing complex hydrological phenomena and processes by means of simulation. At present, hydrological models are widely used in the fields of flood control and drought relief, water resource planning and management, water environment and ecosystem protection, climate change, and analysis of the impact of human activities on water resources. In fact, the hydrological system is a complex and non-linear process. Using relatively simple mathematical formulas to describe the real and complex hydrological process of the watershed often leads to distortion, which inevitably leads to uncertainties in the hydrological model. Therefore, in-depth analysis of the uncertainty of ...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F17/50
CPCG06F30/367
Inventor 郭生练刘章君尹家波杨光
Owner WUHAN UNIV
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