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Precipitation prediction method based on weather radar echo time series image

A weather radar and echo technology, applied in the field of precipitation forecast, can solve problems such as large deviation and reducing the accuracy of precipitation forecast

Active Publication Date: 2018-11-06
NANJING UNIV OF INFORMATION SCI & TECH
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Problems solved by technology

Therefore, the precipitation forecast based on the linear motion relationship often deviates greatly from the actual when predicting the echo image for a long time, thereby reducing the accuracy of the precipitation forecast

Method used

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  • Precipitation prediction method based on weather radar echo time series image
  • Precipitation prediction method based on weather radar echo time series image
  • Precipitation prediction method based on weather radar echo time series image

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Experimental program
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Embodiment Construction

[0088] In this embodiment, the radar base data in the Nanjing area during the time period from 05:39 to 07:11 on August 10, 2016 is selected as the experimental object.

[0089] Step 1) Read the radar base data at 06:10 and the previous 5 moments of the day. For the convenience of expression, define these base data as BD(T), BD(T-1), BD(T-2), BD (T-3), BD(T-4), BD(T-5). The base data of this radar is in CINRADSA format, the volume scanning time interval is 6 minutes, and the number of effective detection elevation angles of the basic reflectivity is 9.

[0090] Step 2) Read the basic reflectivity values ​​of each detection elevation angle in BD(T). Define the basic reflectance value of a certain elevation angle as BRV(T,a,b,c), where a represents the elevation angle, and a∈[0.5°,1.5°,2.4°,3.4°,4.3°,6.0°,9.9 °, 14.6°, 19.5°]; b represents the azimuth, and b∈[0,360); c represents the range library number detected by the radar, and c∈[1,MaxDis], the value of MaxDis depends on t...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a precipitation prediction method based on a weather radar echo time series image. According to the method, a direct correlation between a basic reflectance value and an imagegray value is proposed, two reasonable assumptions are made at the same time and corresponding calculation models are established, two basic reflectivity gray-scale images adjacent to each other in time are subjected to echo body motion feature calculation, then the superimposed calculation is carried out on a moving velocity vector field of a time-series image through a convolution function, according to the principle that the more remote the generation time of a moving velocity vector is, the smaller the influence on the current and the future is, a gray-scale image change prediction model to predict the shape and intensity of a future gray-scale image, and the precipitation prediction based on radar data is achieved. According to the method, the accuracy of a precipitation prediction result for an echo subject with long-term prediction aging and a discontinuous spatio-temporal change is obviously improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of atmospheric science and relates to a method for forecasting precipitation by using time-series images of weather radar echoes. Background technique [0002] Nowcasting technology based on weather radar detection data plays a very active and effective role in short-term nowcasting of precipitation. This technology has been studied since the 1960s. With the continuous updating of radar hardware infrastructure and detection technology, the precipitation forecast method based on weather radar has also made great progress. The basic idea of ​​this type of method is to use the radar reflectivity factor to identify strong echoes, and then predict the future direction and intensity of the echoes according to the movement trend of the echo area, so as to achieve the purpose of forecasting. From the perspective of mathematical statistics, this type of method effectively solves the problem of predicting the development and c...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G01S13/95G01S7/41
CPCG01S7/41G01S7/411G01S13/95Y02A90/10
Inventor 王兴卞浩瑄朱彬水泱王坚红苗春生樊仲欣王丽娟
Owner NANJING UNIV OF INFORMATION SCI & TECH
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