Mountain torrent rapid early warning and forecasting method based on multi-dimensional rainfall characteristic space optimal decision

Abstract

The invention discloses a mountain torrent rapid early warning and forecasting method based on multi-dimensional rainfall characteristic space optimal decision. The method comprises: firstly, calculating initial soil water saturation S of a successive historical rainfall flood process based on a three-layer evapotranspiration principle; secondly, counting the rainfall P of the successive historical rainfall flood process; thirdly, quantifying a rainfall space distribution characteristic K of a successive historical rainfall flood process by combining drainage basin DEM data; calculating a landform unit line of the drainage basin based on the DEM data; taking P, K and S as mutually orthogonal coordinate axes to construct a multi-dimensional rainfall characteristic space coordinate system, establishing a rainfall data point set, dividing the corresponding rainfall data point set into two types of an ultra-alarm subset A and a non-ultra-alarm subset B according to whether the flood process is over-alarm or not, and solving an optimal classification decision equation between the two types of subsets by combining an SVM principle; and if early warning is needed, calculating the runoff process at the outlet of the drainage basin by taking the rainfall as the input of a landform unit line, and carrying out real-time flood forecasting.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of hydrology technology, in particular to a rapid early warning and forecasting method for mountain torrents based on multi-dimensional rainfall characteristic space optimal decision-making. Background technique [0002] There are nearly 9,000 small and medium-sized rivers with a confluence area of ​​200 to 3,000 km2 in my country. In recent years, affected by climate change, sudden floods of small and medium-sized rivers caused by local heavy rainfall have occurred frequently, and have become the main disasters causing casualties. According to statistics, my country's small and medium-sized river flood disasters and mountain torrent geological disasters account for about 70% to 80% of the national flood disaster economic losses, and the death toll accounts for about 2 / 3, posing a serious threat to the safety of people's lives and property. Accurate and reliable early warning and forecasting of sudden flood has become...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Therefore, soil saturation, rainfall, rainfall spatial distribution, and rainfall time distribution are the main factors affecting the critical rainfall. If the influence of these factors on the critical rainfall is ignored, it will lead to inaccurate calculation of the critical rainfall, which is a mountainous small and medium-sized watershed. The prevention and control of mountain torrents leaves hidden dangers

[0006] Therefore, ignoring the characteristics of multi-dimensional rainfall is not conducive to the development of flash flood control in small and medium watersheds based on critical rainfall.

Images