Power system probabilistic power flow calculation method based on probability conservation principle

Abstract

The invention discloses a power system probabilistic power flow calculation method based on the probability conservation principle. The method comprises the following steps of: obtaining various dataof a power system network containing new energy; performing statistical analysis on the historical data of the conventional generator output, the new energy output and the load power, and generating aprobability model of injection power of all nodes of the power system; establishing a linearization model of a power system power flow calculation equation; establishing relational expressions amongprobability density functions of different random variables based on a principle of the probability conservation principle in a probability theory according to a relation of a linear equation; and processing the relational expressions among the probability density functions of different random variables by utilizing the definition and the property of the delta function to generate probability density functions of node voltage, branch power flow and branch active loss in the power system. According to the method, an accurate probability power flow calculation result can be obtained, the probability characteristics of node voltage, branch power flow and branch active loss in the system are reasonably reflected, and the calculation efficiency is high.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention is a method for calculating the probability power flow of a power system based on the principle of probability conservation. Based on the principle of probability conservation in probability theory, the probability density function between node voltage, node injected power, branch power flow and active power loss in the power system is calculated. The relationship between them is deduced, and the result of probabilistic power flow calculation is obtained, which belongs to the research field of power system probabilistic power flow calculation. Background technique [0002] As a typical multi-variable, high-dimensional, complex, and nonlinear system, the power system inevitably has uncertainties and risks. With the continuous increase in the penetration rate of new energy power, the uncertainty of power system operation is more prominent. Due to the volatility, intermittency and randomness of new energy output, the uncertainty of i...

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Problems solved by technology

The analytical method is represented by the semi-invariant method, by solving the semi-invariant matrix of random variables, performing matrix operations, and finally obtaining the probability density function or probability distribution function and statistical characteristics of the power flow response through the series expansion, but the series expansion It is prone to non-convergence, resulting in a negative value of the probability density function

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