Offshore oilfield load prediction method based on shore-based power supply

Abstract

The invention discloses an offshore oilfield load prediction method based on shore-based power supply, and the method comprises the following steps: checking the overall planning design of a power grid, determining the distance between a monitoring power supply point and each load point, recording the distance between the power supply point and each load point as Si, and transmitting the distance Si to an offshore oilfield monitoring platform; the power utilization condition Ai of each branch and each node in the power grid is monitored in real time, and the detected power utilization condition is sent to the offshore oilfield monitoring platform; the offshore oilfield monitoring platform receives the distance Si and the power consumption condition Ai, analyzes and judges whether the load point is in a power consumption abnormal state or not, stores an analysis result as historical data, and continues to carry out the step S001; and historical data is called during analysis of abnormal power consumption of the load point, and the operation state of the load point is predicted. The above data is used as a historical database for predicting the load operation condition, and the load prediction accuracy is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of load forecasting, in particular to an offshore oilfield load forecasting method based on shore-based power supply. Background technique [0002] my country's offshore oil is now mainly being explored and developed by the China National Offshore Oil Corporation. It is currently operating in the Bohai Sea, the South China Sea and the East China Sea, and has built a large number of offshore cooperative and self-operated oil and gas fields. In 1999, the output of crude oil was 16.16 million tons, and the output of natural gas was 440,000 cubic meters. The enterprise has good economic benefits. [0003] At present, my country's offshore oil industry has achieved remarkable results. The four major offshore oil bases in the Bohai Sea, East China Sea, West South China Sea, and East South China Sea produced oil and natural gas equivalent to 23.29 million tons of oil and gas equivalent in 2001, accounting for about...

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Problems solved by technology

Traditional forecasting methods include industrial output value unit consumption method, power elasticity coefficient method, regression analysis method, etc. These methods are simple to operate and have good effects, and are widely used in actual engineering. However, this type of method only considers a single factor and is difficult to apply to offshore Diversification of Factors Affecting Electric Power Load in Oilfields

Modern forecasting methods include neural network forecasting methods, support vector machine forecasting methods, gray system forecasting methods, etc. These methods establish the relationship between input volume and output volume by analyzing a large number of historical sample data, and are suitable for sequences with strong volatility. There are few sample data for medium and long-term load forecasting, so this kind of method is difficult to apply in practice

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