Ultra-short-term power forecasting method for clear-sky photovoltaics based on real-time radiation collection technology

Abstract

The ultra-short-term power forecast method of clear-sky photovoltaics based on real-time radiation collection technology uses the relationship between the radiation intensity of the circumscribed plane of the atmosphere and the ground radiation intensity under clear sky, and combines the real-time data of the ground radiation automatic environmental monitoring station to predict the future ground 0-4 The hourly solar radiation intensity is predicted, and the predicted results are input as parameters into the photoelectric conversion model to output the power generation of photovoltaic power plants in the next 0-4 hours. According to the prediction results, power grid dispatching can make overall arrangements for the coordination and cooperation of conventional power sources and photovoltaic power generation, rationally arrange the operation mode of the power grid, optimize real-time dispatching and adjustment, and accept more photovoltaic power generation. On the other hand, reduce the spinning reserve capacity and operating costs of the power system to Make full use of solar energy resources and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, so as to obtain greater economic and social benefits.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of photovoltaic power generation and distribution, and relates to a method for ultra-short-term power forecasting of photovoltaic power plants under clear skies. The forecast time is 0-4 hours in the future, the time resolution of the forecast point is 15 minutes, and the rolling cycle forecast is every 15 minutes. Background technique [0002] Solar photovoltaic power generation is a form of power generation that uses the photovoltaic effect principle of solar cells to directly convert solar radiation energy into electrical energy. Under the pressure of global energy shortage and environmental degradation, photovoltaic power generation has been valued by countries all over the world, and the photovoltaic power generation industry has developed rapidly. With the implementation of the building photovoltaic subsidy policy and the "Golden Sun" project in 2009, the process of photovoltaic power generation in my ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, due to the instability of solar photovoltaic power generation, it has brought certain difficulties to grid connection. In order to reasonably allocate photovoltaic power generation in the grid, it is necessary to forecast the power generation of photovoltaic power plants.

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